[Chiman Yin Daily October 15 Key Financial Agenda] Today's focus on key data and events (Wednesday):

Pending: European Central Bank President Lagarde attends the meeting
①14:45 France September CPI MoM Final
②17:00 Eurozone August Industrial Production MoM
③20:30 Canada August Wholesale Sales MoM
④20:30 US October New York Fed Manufacturing Index
⑤21:30 Federal Reserve Governor Milan gives a speech
⑥Next day at 00:30, Fed Governor Mylan speaks again.
⑦The next day at 01:00, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak on artificial intelligence.
⑧ Next day 01:35 Speech by Fed's Schmidt
On the next day at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions & Lagarde will participate in the debate.
Message Summary
①Conclusion: According to Powell's dovish speech early this morning, he first mentioned that the Federal Reserve will stop tapering in the next few months. This is a positive sign for the market as it will increase liquidity.
He also mentioned the risk of inflation, but he said that only the risk of employment is increasing. So it is very likely that he will lower interest rates in October for the job market. Now we just have to see how the cip announced next Friday turns out.
If there are no major issues, it is very likely that interest rates will be cut at the end of the month. Currently, several council members' speeches support a rate cut in October, especially Milan, who is a pure dove. This raises the probability of a rate cut in October to 96%. We still need to see next Friday's CPI for specifics. Long-term, the preference throughout October is leaning towards a cut.