#MERL

1. Core Insight: The main force is in the "distribution phase after the rise."

The current market shows a strong signal of "fatigue after the frenzy of new highs." After a significant rally in the previous period, the main players are currently trying to maintain market sentiment at high levels to achieve distribution of their holdings.

Key Evidence Chain:

Indicators Data/Patterns Meaning Interpretation
Price and Moving Averages: Price ( 0.343 ) is significantly higher than MA100 1928374656574839201 0.287 (, and MA20/600 1928374656574839201 approximately 0.196 ). The short-term increase is huge, and the moving averages are in an extremely bullish arrangement, but the price has strayed far from the cost area, with substantial profits.
MACD DIF: 0.06165, DEA: 0.03360, MACD: 0.02805 Although it maintains a golden cross, the gap between DIF and DEA is narrowing, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening, and there is a risk of a top divergence.
RSI 63.69 is in a neutral to strong area, not yet at extreme overbought levels, which means that if market sentiment is good, there is still room for an upward move; conversely, it is likely to turn down.
Trading volume currently at 34.12 million << historical peak at 303 million. There is a divergence between volume and price! The price is high, but trading volume has significantly shrunk, indicating insufficient funds for chasing high prices, making it difficult for the main forces to support or manipulate the price.

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2. Decoding the intentions of the main force: using sideways movement to replace declines, timing the exit.

The main intention of the main force at present is not to continue to push up the price, but to "maintain a decent price and complete the chip exchange."

Intention: High-level oscillation, distributing chips
· By creating a volatile range at a high level, allowing retail investors who are still optimistic about the market to take over, while quietly selling off oneself.
· The market performance is that it can't rise or fall, using time to exchange for space.
Intention 2: Testing market support and pressure
Either the market is performing well or the projects are favorable, attracting new funds to enter, making it easier for them to continue distributing or even raise prices a second time; or the favorable conditions have reached their limit or the market weakens, leading to a direct dump of assets.

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· Operation:
· Holders: You can reduce your position in batches at the upper edge of the oscillation range (such as above 0.37) to lock in profits.
· Short sellers: Stay patient, do not chase highs

Deduction: Break and move downwards, initiating a pullback

· Scenario: Price breaks down through the key support at 0.32 with increased volume.
· Signal: MACD death cross, RSI quickly falls below 50.
· Action: resolutely exit the market to avoid deep pullback risks,

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Key Action
Position holders take profits in batches, securing profits gradually by selling in batches within the range of 0.36-0.38, while retaining the base position for higher returns. The stop-loss is set at 0.32.
Holders should patiently observe, better to miss out than to chase the high.