Altcoin market trend depth analysis: Opportunities hidden in doubts, how to understand the structural market?

Recently, I've come across a lot of discussions about alts. Some people are worried about the sideways K-line, some reminisce about the days when "any purchase would increase in value," and others are quietly studying the signals in the data—actually, the trend of this round of alts has long jumped out of the old script of "universal rise and fall," hiding a more intricate market logic. Today, let's not talk about sensational "hundredfold expectations," but instead take a good look at the current real market situation, which might help you see the direction in the fog.

First, let's throw out a set of key data. Friends who are in the know might have already caught a whiff of it: Bitcoin's dominance has dropped from 64% to 57%, which is the most significant decline since 2022; Blockchaincenter's alts season index has surged to 73, and Coinglass even gave it a 76, both approaching the 75% "activation threshold." Some may ask, "What does this indicate?" Simply put, it means that funds are quietly shifting from Bitcoin to alts, but not randomly—this combination of "Bitcoin sideways movement + declining dominance" is precisely a signal of increasing market risk appetite, yet with an unprecedented level of restraint.

Compared to the "chaos" during the ICO boom in 2017 and the "blind following" during the DeFi craze in 2021, the current trends in alts are vastly different. In the past, it was "flood irrigation" where any project associated with the "blockchain" concept could soar; now, it’s "precise drip irrigation" where institutional funds have become the main force, and compliance, technological implementation capabilities, and real application scenarios have become the filters, eliminating over 90% of "air coins." Look at those alts that have been steadily rising recently; either they have made real breakthroughs in niche areas like privacy computing and cross-chain technology, or they are following new narratives such as RWA and Ethereum's financial infrastructure. It's no longer possible to sustain a market just by telling stories through white papers.

But why do some people still think "alts have no chance"? It's actually because they haven't understood the "differentiation code" of the market. On one hand, indeed over 80% of alts are still sluggish, the old narratives of "ETH killers" and "Web3 games" are no longer appealing, and many projects have seen their developers run away, making it naturally hard to rise; on the other hand, varieties like SOL and XRP, which have institutional funding interest and clear compliance progress, can still rise against the trend even if ETF approvals are delayed, because the market knows that "delay does not equal rejection." This structural trend of "the strong getting stronger and the weak being eliminated" is exactly a sign of market maturity — it is no longer about "betting on the right coin to get rich," but rather about "understanding the logic to make money."

Speaking of this, many friends must be wondering: should we enter now or wait? Don't rush to conclusions, let's take a look at these two signals before deciding: first, capital flow; recently, BTC spot ETF has seen significant inflows for five consecutive days, and ETH also experienced its largest single-day inflow in two weeks, indicating that large funds are still entering the market, just being selective with their targets; second, institutional actions; Yunfeng Financial invested 314 million in Ethereum, and Huajian Medical and Huaxing Capital are also accumulating coins. The "coin-stock linkage" strategy of listed companies essentially uses real money to vote. These funds are more cautious than we are, and their layout direction is actually the "weather vane" of the market.

Of course, high emotional intelligence reminders must be in place: never use old thinking to trade alts again. In the market of 2025, the "barbell strategy" is the safest choice—putting part of your position in mainstream alts with compliance endorsements and strong liquidity, while leaving another part to observe potential projects with real technological breakthroughs; don't put all your eggs in one basket. And those coins with teams whose backgrounds you can't even trace, relying entirely on community calls, even if they soar in the short term, will eventually fall back down; the lessons from the 2022 bear market must not be forgotten.

Finally, I want to say that the trend of alts has never been "black or white." It doesn't sit firmly in the position of "digital gold" like Bitcoin, but hides the most vibrant innovation in the crypto industry; it doesn't have the ecological foundation of Ethereum, but can sprint out unexpected dark horses in niche tracks. The current market, rather than saying "the altcoin season is coming," is better described as "the value selection race has begun"—those alts that can traverse cycles have never relied on speculation, but on truly solving industry pain points to establish a foothold.

If you have a position, it is worth checking the latest technological developments and capital inflows of the projects you hold; if you are still observing, it is better to study the directions and compliance processes that institutions are heavily invested in. The market always rewards those who are prepared, rather than those who blindly follow the trend.

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