Bitcoin 24-Hour Watch: Policy Eases, Funds Are Still Fleeing?

Over the past day, BTC rebounded by 3.31%. From a technical perspective, things look promising, but institutional wallets are shrinking. How far can this rally go? Let’s break it down.

**First, the bullish logic**

The price is indeed moving upward. The MACD has a golden cross, RSI is all in the green above 50, and the Bollinger Bands’ upper band is signaling—these are classic bullish signals. More importantly, there’s policy momentum: the current leader of a certain country recently reiterated plans to make their nation a “Bitcoin superpower,” and senators are calling on banks not to reject cryptocurrencies. Sounds encouraging, right?

**But don’t rush to buy in**

The macro environment is cooling down. The government shutdown deadlock remains unresolved, the Treasury’s TGA account has drained $700 billion in liquidity this month, and the Fed remains hawkish. These three factors combined are causing risk assets to bleed.

More direct data hits: On November 4th, spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $577 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of redemptions. Major institutional capital is clearly retreating, and the so-called “bullish institutional narrative” is being challenged by reality. Ethereum ETFs aren’t doing much better either.

**Technical analysts see other issues**

Two classic topping signals have appeared on the charts: a double top near $120,000 and a potential head-and-shoulders pattern further out. If these formations hold, the target could be around $100,250. That suggests this recent rebound might just be a bear trap, a dead cat bounce during a downtrend.

**What’s the community arguing?**

On on-chain forums, opinions are divided. Optimists believe holding above the 200-day moving average signals a turnaround, while pessimists warn of a trap for bulls. Some are watching liquidation heatmaps anxiously, fearing a wave of liquidations. No one dares to confidently predict the next move.

**My take**

Short-term technical signals and policy statements justify a rebound, but medium-term liquidity shortages and institutional withdrawals are the main themes. In this environment, any bounce might just be a correction from oversold levels, not a trend reversal. If you want to buy the dip, wait until the double top’s neckline at $120,000 is convincingly broken. Jumping in now? The risk-reward ratio isn’t worth it.