On November 5, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto assets continued their weak state, experiencing ongoing declines. Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June, briefly dropping below $99,000 in the early hours, with a 24-hour decline of over 7%; Ethereum also briefly fell below $3,100 in the early hours, with a 24-hour decline of over 13%. Major altcoins such as BNB and SOL also continued to experience significant declines. Subsequently, Bitcoin and Ethereum saw a slight rebound. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network was $2.028 billion, including $1.628 billion from long orders and $399 million from short orders.

It has only been a month since Bitcoin reached its all-time high, and the crypto market shows signs of fatigue, especially after entering November, where the market is filled with despair. Statements claiming that the "bull market is over" are frequently seen. What factors have negatively impacted the market, and has the bull market really ended?
1. BTC breaks important support at $100,000, the encryption market continues to show weakness.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and other encryption assets continued their weak state on November 5, continuing to fall. Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June, dipping below $99,000 at one point, hitting a low of $98,944, with a 24-hour decline of over 7%; Ethereum also dipped below $3,100, hitting a low of $3,057, with a 24-hour decline of over 13%. Mainstream alts such as BNB and SOL also continued to drop sharply. Subsequently, Bitcoin and Ethereum saw a slight rebound, with Bitcoin rising to around $101,000 and Ethereum rising to around $3,300.
Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network was $2.028 billion, affecting more than 472,000 people. Among them, long orders accounted for $1.628 billion in liquidations, while short orders accounted for $399 million, mainly liquidating long orders. ETH liquidations totaled $657 million, BTC liquidations totaled $614 million, and SOL liquidations were $124 million.

Since the "10.11" largest liquidation event in history, the crypto market has been lacking sufficient rebound momentum, and early this morning it even briefly fell below the important support level of 100,000 USD. Although many people still remain bullish on the trend of crypto assets by the end of the year, the ongoing downward pressure raises a big question mark on whether the crypto market bull market can continue.
2. The withdrawal of ETF and DAT treasury funds has resulted in the market losing its main driving force.
Since entering November, ETF funds have continued to experience net outflows, and funds from Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) reserve companies have also seen withdrawals. According to monitoring by Lookonchain, in the first two days of this week, 10 Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of a total of 3,710 Bitcoins (valued at $393.67 million), and 9 Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of a total of 59,855 Ethers (valued at $216.45 million). Data from Farside Investors shows that last week, the net outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs was $799 million, and Ethereum spot ETFs experienced net outflows for three consecutive days last week, totaling $363 million.
The pace of Bitcoin purchases by Strategy, a representative of Bitcoin treasury companies, has significantly slowed down. In the third quarter, Strategy increased its holdings by approximately 43,000 Bitcoins, the lowest quarterly purchase volume for the company this year. The US-listed semiconductor company Sequans Communications redeemed 50% of its convertible bonds by selling 970 Bitcoins. This transaction reduced the company's total debt from $189 million to $94.5 million. Sequans currently holds 2,264 Bitcoins, down from 3,234 previously. Based on current market prices, the company's net asset value in Bitcoins is approximately $240 million, and the debt-to-net asset value ratio has decreased from 55% to 39%. The Japanese Bitcoin treasury company MetaPlanet recently saw its stock price drop below the market value of its Bitcoin holdings after a significant decline. According to official news, MetaPlanet has completed a share repurchase plan for 150 million common shares.
The two main driving forces behind this bull market are the ETF and DAT treasury, while the cautious wait-and-see attitude of institutional investors and the outflow of funds have led to a lack of sufficient upward momentum in the crypto market, resulting in continued declines. (Refer to the previous article by Golden Finance "The Largest Buyer of BTC Stops Large Accumulation, Weak ETF Fund Inflow - Is This the Reason for the BTC Plunge?")
3. Whales frequently trade leveraged contracts, and large long orders are getting liquidated.
During the continuous decline in the encryption market, the large long orders of giant whale investors were once again liquidated. On-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa) monitored that the remaining long orders of the "100% win rate whale" were completely cleared at a loss of 39.37 million USD early this morning. BTC briefly fell below 100,000 USD, while ETH dropped to 3,057 USD, quickly reaching its liquidation line; the long order operations that began on October 24 accumulated losses of 39.906 million USD, with the overall account loss reaching 30.02 million USD.
On-chain analyst Yu Jin monitored that a whale who previously went long on a total of 1,320 WBTC (approximately 132 million USD) through circular borrowing is now nearing the liquidation line after the market fell. To reduce risk, the whale sold about 465.4 WBTC and 2,686 ETH this morning, receiving approximately 56.52 million USDC to repay part of the loan. Lookonchain monitored that "Brother Magic" Huang Licheng's long order has been completely liquidated again. His account balance now only has 1,718 USD.
In addition, Onchain Lens monitors that a certain whale deposited 3.5 million USDC into HyperLiquid and shorted BTC and ETH with 20x leverage.
Whale investors frequently engage in contract trading with high leverage, significantly increasing the short-term volatility of the encryption market, while large long order liquidations exert stronger downward pressure on crypto assets and exacerbate the market's fragility.
4. The "shutdown" of the U.S. government and the indecision on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are macro factors that withdraw liquidity.
The "shutdown" crisis of the U.S. government continues, with no signs of a resolution. According to Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. Senate failed again on the 4th to pass a temporary funding bill for the federal government, which means that this round of federal government "shutdown" is about to break the historical record of 35 days of "shutdown" from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, becoming the longest government "shutdown" in U.S. history. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office recently stated that if the "shutdown" lasts for 4 weeks, the U.S. economy will lose $7 billion; if it lasts for 6 weeks, the loss will rise to $11 billion; if it lasts for 8 weeks, the loss will reach as high as $14 billion.
The Federal Reserve's shift in policy direction is another straw that broke the camel's back for the market. Last week, Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks downplayed market expectations for a rate cut in December, further reinforcing the narrative that interest rates will "remain high for a longer period." This shift has strengthened the dollar, putting direct pressure on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, stated that the U.S. Treasury is borrowing money but not spending it, with the general account of the Treasury exceeding the target of $850 billion by about $150 billion. This additional liquidity will only be released into the market after the government reopens. The withdrawal of this liquidity is one of the reasons for the current weakness in the crypto market. Market fluctuations are expected, especially before the end of the U.S. government shutdown. Many people will mistakenly interpret this period of market weakness and dullness as a peak and sell off their holdings, which is a mistake because the operational mechanism of the dollar money market does not lie. The U.S. Treasury not only needs to issue $2 trillion annually to fund the government but also must issue trillions to roll over maturing debt, and the invisible quantitative easing through the SRF will soon begin. (Refer to the previous article from Golden Finance: "Arthur Hayes: The U.S. Government Shutdown is One of the Reasons for the Current Weakness in the Crypto Market, Please Be Patient for Invisible QE")
5. Protocol vulnerability attack incidents are frequent, and market panic is intensifying.
Following the attack on Balancer on November 3rd, which resulted in losses exceeding $100 million, other projects have also suffered from vulnerability attacks. CertiK monitored that the Moonwell lending contract was subject to multiple attack transactions. The attacker exploited the incorrect price returned by the oracle for wrst (approximately $5.8 million), leveraging a flash loan of about 0.02 wrstETH to deposit, and repeatedly borrowed over 20 wstETH, profiting 295 ETH (approximately $1 million).
On November 4th, according to monitoring by PeckShield, the staking stablecoin Staked Stream USD (token symbol $XUSD) has de-pegged, with a drop of about 23%. Stream Finance's official statement later revealed that an external fund manager disclosed that the Stream fund it oversees has incurred losses of about $93 million. Stream has hired attorneys Keith Miller and Joseph Cutler from Perkins Coie LLP to lead a comprehensive investigation. Stream is extracting all liquid assets and has announced a suspension of all deposit and withdrawal operations.
The cryptocurrency market has become extremely fragile due to the large-scale liquidation events in October, and a series of protocol vulnerabilities and asset anchoring incidents have further exacerbated this fragility.
6. Has the bull market ended? A market analysis overview.
After a series of falls, has the bull market for cryptocurrencies come to an end? Is the market continuing to fall, or is it rebounding? Let's take a look at the main interpretations and analyses.
1. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that although retail investors are in a state of "maximum despair," he believes this actually indicates that the market bottom may be approaching, rather than being a long way off. With support for Bitcoin from institutional investors and financial advisors on Wall Street, as well as the growth of cryptocurrency ETFs, he even boldly claimed that it is not impossible for Bitcoin to set a new all-time high by the end of the year amid the current severe sell-off. Hougan believes that more crypto trading is gradually shifting towards an institution-led market.
2. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the growth of Bitcoin ETFs will go through a process of two steps forward, one step back, and is currently in the retreat stage. This pattern can be seen from the fund flows of IBIT. In my view, this is part of the development process. Only children would expect to see gains every day.
3. DeFiance Capital founder @Arthur_0x tweeted that I entered the cryptocurrency field in 2017, and the current situation is comparable to that of late 2018 to 2019, which is the most severe market environment faced by cryptocurrency market participants. Now, survival is the key.
4. Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute stated that despite the macro environment remaining supportive, including interest rate cuts, the end of quantitative tightening, and the stock market nearing its peak, cryptocurrencies continue to lag behind other asset classes. Wintermute noted that global liquidity is expanding, but funds have not flowed into the cryptocurrency market. Among the three major capital inflow engines driving performance in the first half of this year, only the supply of stablecoins has continued to grow, while ETF capital inflows have stagnated since summer, with BTC ETF assets under management hovering around $150 billion, and digital asset trading (DAT) activity has also dried up. Wintermute believes that the four-year cycle concept is no longer applicable to mature markets, and liquidity is the key factor driving performance currently. They will closely monitor ETF capital inflows and DAT activity, as these will be important signals for liquidity returning to the cryptocurrency market.
5. CryptoQuant data shows that the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has fallen back to the range of 13-14. Historically, this level has marked liquidity turning points in the market multiple times—when the balance of stablecoins increases relatively, it indicates that off-market "purchasing power" is accumulating. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $100,000, and the lower SSR suggests that stablecoin liquidity may be quietly rebuilding. Analysts believe this could pave the way for a rebound or the final phase of a bull market in this cycle.
6. Senior analyst Elon Gu from Ultima Markets pointed out that from a technical perspective, for Bitcoin to reverse upwards, it must first reclaim the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) located at approximately $111,000 and the area of high trading volume. Above this level, $116,000 will be the next key resistance level.
7. Analyst @ali_charts analyzed the Bitcoin UTXO realized price distribution chart from Glassnode, noting that below $104,800, there are fewer UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs) supporting the price of Bitcoin.
8. Strategy founder Michael Saylor claims that Bitcoin will "always" rise by 20% each year, "I call it the global reserve capital network."
9. Market analyst Damian Chmiel pointed out that if the Bitcoin price remains below $100,000, it could trigger a more severe sell-off, with the next target being the April low near $74,000, which means there is still about a 30% potential downside from current levels.