The underlying reconstruction of the bullish logic for Bitcoin - this bull run is truly different from the past.

As someone who witnessed the pure emotional frenzy of the bull run in 2017, endured the repeated fluctuations of institutional testing in 2021, and navigated the bear market winter of 2022, I am increasingly convinced: the underlying logic of this round of Bitcoin's rise is no longer as simple as "historical cycles repeating." Its driving core has shifted from emotion-driven to structural reshaping. For this reason, this bull run is more robust, stronger, and has more long-term support, making it worth holding longer than any previous round.
1. The cycle rhythm has not changed, but the driving entities have been replaced.
The main upward trend of each bull run typically lasts about three months, and this pattern has not changed since 2017, 2021, and up to today. However, the main forces driving the price have completely changed.
In 2017, retail investor sentiment surged wildly, coming in strong and leaving quickly; in 2021, institutions began to test the waters, with the landscape still immature. Starting in 2024, the core of this market cycle has shifted to long-term allocations by institutions. When retail investors panic, institutions quietly accumulate; when retail investors call for a crash, ETF capital inflows have never been interrupted. The structural differentiation of prices falling from ninety thousand dollars to lower ranges — retail investors cutting losses, institutions building positions — is the most distinct signal of the new cycle. The rise is no longer gambling, but rather the inevitable result of changes in capital structure.
2. The macroeconomic benefits are not short-term stimuli, but rather the long-term implementation of compliance logic.
Many people only see surface catalysts such as "spot ETF approval", "M2 expansion", and "interest rate cut expectations", but the real underlying support is the irreversible process of the compliance of crypto assets.
In the past, institutions struggled to allocate Bitcoin, only able to do so indirectly through Grayscale trusts or futures ETFs. Now, spot ETFs are fully rolled out—direct, compliant, transparent, and capable of large-scale positions. Bitcoin has overnight been included in the "standard asset pool" for global institutions. This is not just a single influx of capital, but a complete opening of a new era.
On a macro level, although the U.S. claims to maintain high interest rates, it has quietly stopped raising rates, and the market even anticipates rate cuts. The trend of M2 expansion has never reversed, the Nasdaq has repeatedly reached new highs, and after peaking, safe-haven funds have begun to shift towards more flexible assets. Global liquidity is being quietly released, and Bitcoin is indeed the most scarce among all risk assets.
3. The weakness around one hundred thousand dollars is a disguise, a classic accumulation technique of the main force.
Many people see Bitcoin hovering around the hundred thousand mark and are eager to call a bearish trend, claiming it won't pump anymore. However, if you closely monitor the on-chain and exchange data, the picture is completely opposite.
In the range of 90,000 to 95,000, every pullback has seen a significant increase in trading volume, indicating extremely strong support; the concentration of holdings continues to rise, proving that retail investors are selling while institutions are harvesting. The oscillation remains unbroken, and the concentration of holdings is evident—this is a typical consolidation pattern before a major upward trend, similar to the accumulation phase from 34,000 to 64,000 in 2023, but this time the support is more stable, as the buyers are no longer retail investors, but institutions.
4. The technical structure is sound, and the main upward wave is only a matter of time.
On the monthly chart, Bitcoin shows a clean and neat long-term bullish arrangement. As long as the monthly line does not fall below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (around 88,000), the overall trend will not reverse.
The MACD remains firmly in the positive zone. Although the red bars are shrinking, they have not turned green. This is not the end of the bull market, but rather a mid-adjustment and indicator repair. Historically, before each major upward wave starts, the technical aspect tends to experience similar oscillating consolidations.
Essential difference: from "gambling cycle" to "trust logic"
If someone asks what the essential difference is between this bullish Bitcoin and previous ones, I would say: in the past it was a bet on the cycle, this time it is a bet on logic.
• The logic of trusting institutional funds
• The logic of compliance
• The logic of信全球流動性
Cycles may deceive you, but structures will not. When you see through the fundamental changes in capital structure, policy direction, and macro liquidity, you will understand: this bull run is no longer a "wave of emotions," but a long-term restructuring driven by institutionalization and regulation.
Short-term fluctuations do not damage the overall trend, because before the main upward wave arrives, the market is always silent, tangled, and even doubtful. At this moment, it is the calm before the storm. Bitcoin is accumulating power inch by inch, preparing for the next breakthrough above one hundred thousand dollars.
This bull run will not only come, but it will be more stable, longer, and deeper than you can imagine.
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