2025.11.8

Today BTC 103000, ETH 3450
After two consecutive days of significant declines, with ETH falling 13% in a single day, various cryptocurrencies have rebounded by 10% today, and I believe it is a rebound.
Looking at the K-line trend today, after the start of the bull market in 2024,

The highest point around 70,000 appeared in March 2024.
The lowest point of around 60,000 will appear in August 2024.
The highest point of around 110,000 will appear in December 2024.
In April 2025, the lowest point will be around 75,000.
The highest point will appear around 120,000 in August 2025.

Based on the market trend, a new low of around 90,000 may occur around December this year.
Of course, this is one reason for predicting a downward trend. Another reason is based on the trading insights of the 123 trading rule (Part Two). It is currently at point E, and if it breaks below 98200, it would be equivalent to breaking point E, signaling the time to exit. Fortunately, today the price has been pulled back above 100k. If there is really another wave of market movement, then the upcoming trend should be a sideways adjustment for 1-2 months. Even if a new low appears, it should be between 90k and 100k, and then a strong bullish candle should be released to guide a new wave of upward movement. Otherwise, it might be time to run before the year ends.
I remember not long ago someone said that there would be a financial crisis in 2026 in country M, with the last financial crisis occurring in 2008. If that's the case, will it coincide with a bear market, and by 2028, when Bitcoin halves, will it be the start of a crazy bull market?
I watched the market for a long time today and thought about it for a long time. Perhaps it's due to insufficient understanding, or maybe because my position is relatively large, I haven't seen the ideal profits yet. Looking at the K-line trend, it feels like it will turn bearish. I am still struggling inside, unwilling to reduce my position. Subjectively, I still want to hold my coins and wait, hoping for a wave of upward market movement; only then will this bear market feel complete. Let's hold on a bit longer and see how long I can endure.