#BTC Bitcoin death cross refers to the situation when the 50-day moving average (MA) of Bitcoin price falls below the 200-day moving average. This technical pattern is often seen as a signal for a short-term trend to turn bearish in market analysis. Below is a summary of key information about the Bitcoin death cross:

1. Historical Performance
Since the birth of Bitcoin, there have been multiple death crosses. Historically, there are two scenarios for price trends after a death cross:
· Death Cross in a Bear Market: During bear markets such as in 2014-2015, 2018, and 2022, death crosses are often accompanied by prolonged declines, with falls reaching 55%-68%, lasting for 9-13 months.
· Death Cross in a Bull Market: In 2023, 2024, and 2025, the Death Cross occurred during the adjustment phase of the bull market, usually signaling a short-term pullback bottom, followed by a price rebound, and in some cases even reaching new highs.
2. Current Market Situation
By November 2025, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the key support level of $100,000, with the 50-day MA nearing a crossover below the 200-day MA, potentially forming a death cross. Some analysts believe that the current market is similar to the death crosses seen in historical bull markets, which may indicate a rebound after a short-term pullback, but it is necessary to comprehensively assess this alongside the macroeconomic environment and market sentiment.
3. Risks and Opportunities
· Risk: If the macroeconomic situation worsens after the death cross (such as the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, liquidity tightening, etc.), the price may further fall to around $70,000.
· Opportunity: Historical data shows that after a death cross, prices tend to bottom out and rebound in the short term, with some analysts predicting that the rebound could exceed 45%. If Bitcoin can regain key moving averages (such as $106,800) after the death cross, it may initiate a new upward cycle.
4. Notes
· The death cross is a lagging indicator that reflects changes in trends that have already occurred, rather than a definitive signal for future movements.
Investors need to conduct a comprehensive analysis by combining multiple dimensions of information such as trading volume, on-chain data (like whale movements, changes in holdings), etc., to avoid making decisions based on a single indicator.
· The cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile, and investments should be made with caution. It is recommended to allocate assets reasonably based on one's own risk tolerance. In summary, while the Bitcoin death cross may cause short-term fluctuations, historical experience shows that it does not necessarily lead to a long-term bear market. Investors should view technical signals rationally and make decisions based on market fundamentals and their own strategies.