#美联储会议纪要将公布 Fed's rate cut probability in December has plummeted to 39%-41%, market confidence has collapsed!!!

In just one week, the market's expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December have been halved from over 60% to less than 40%! The latest data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that the current probability is only 41%, with some quotes falling to 39%. There are three reasons:

1. Multiple Fed officials collectively adopt a hawkish stance, with Vice Chairman Jefferson clearly stating that "further interest rate cuts need to be implemented gradually."

2. Fed Governor Waller supports a rate cut in December, but emphasizes that this is merely a "risk management-style cut" and not a sign that the economy has deteriorated to the point that a significant cut is necessary.

3. The market is worried that the delayed data set to be densely released this week (especially the September non-farm payrolls) may not be as weak as expected, which could give the Fed more reason to hold steady.

The biggest "black swan" this week: September non-farm payroll report is coming.
Due to the previous government shutdown in the United States, a large amount of economic data has been delayed and will be released this week, with Thursday's September non-farm payrolls becoming the focus of the entire market.

JPMorgan expects only 50,000 new jobs in September. If this is indeed so weak, it could leave a glimmer of hope for a rate cut in December; however, Goldman Sachs warns: this data is already seriously lagging and has limited reference significance, "it is unlikely to resolve the debate about the outlook."

Worse still, the White House has already leaked that the October employment report will not include unemployment rate data, and the October CPI will not be released at all. The quality of data in the coming months will be significantly compromised, making it much more difficult for the Fed to make decisions.