#SOL MicroStrategy and Harvard University, two major institutions, are increasing the position against the trend. Is it bottom accumulation or a chase the price trap?

The price of Bitcoin has fallen below $90,000, the market is undergoing a deep adjustment, the financing rate has turned negative, open interest has decreased, short-term holders are facing on-chain capitulation, and retail investors are selling off in concentrated liquidation due to leverage and losses.
MicroStrategy purchased 8,178 Bitcoins for $835.6 million, locking in an average price of $102,171. Currently, the position is at a floating loss, but the overall average cost is about $74,433, still maintaining profitability, with approximately 40% of the position trading below cost.
Harvard Management Company disclosed that it holds $442.9 million in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), a 200% increase from the previous quarter, making it the largest position among its US-listed stocks, indicating that institutions are increasing their positions during the downturn and are optimistic about digital assets in the long term.
The monthly market value of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has shrunk by $2.57 billion, marking the largest decline in history. Capital outflows are concentrated during U.S. trading hours, putting pressure on prices and creating a pattern of retail investors selling off while institutions take over, reflecting the shift of funds from weak investors to strong institutions.
On-chain data shows that whale wallets holding over 1,000 Bitcoins have been consistently increasing their positions as small-scale wallets exit, which is consistent with the early capital redistribution model during historical pullbacks, but there are limitations in the wallet tagging data.
The derivatives market shows characteristics of deleveraging, with a decline in open interest and a shift to negative funding largely stemming from the closure of long positions, rather than active withdrawals by whales.
The scale of institutional buying is difficult to offset the outflow pressure of ETF funds, and the increases in positions by MicroStrategy and Harvard cannot hedge the $2.57 billion redemption. It is hard to distinguish between short-term accumulation and a bull market trap in terms of shape.
If the outflow of ETF funds continues or macroeconomic risks escalate, the liquidation price of Bitcoin may further decline. MicroStrategy and Harvard can buffer the impact with financing strategies and long-term investment cycles, while retail investors and leveraged traders lack similar protections.
The final nature of the market is still undecided: if ETF funds stabilize and institutional demand follows, it may indicate that the bottom is near; if outflows and macro pressures intensify, the current increase in position may only be a temporary respite, and the flow of funds in the coming month will determine the answer.
MicroStrategy and Harvard University, two major institutions, are increasing their positions against the trend. Is it bottom accumulation or a chase the price trap?

MicroStrategy purchased 8,178 bitcoins for $835.6 million, locking in an average price of $102,171. Although the current price has dropped below $90,000 causing this batch of holdings to incur unrealized losses, the company's overall average cost for its holdings is approximately $74,433, which remains profitable. It is estimated that 40% of its holdings were acquired at prices below this cost.

Harvard Management Company disclosed in its 13F filing on September 30 that it holds 6.8 million shares of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), valued at $442.9 million, a 200% increase from the previous quarter, making it the highest valued position in its U.S. listed equities. This institution, managing $50 billion in assets, increased the position during the downturn, highlighting its long-term optimism for digital assets.

Two major institutions increase the position coinciding with a deep market adjustment: financing rates have fallen into negative territory, open interest has decreased, short-term holders (wallets that have earned coins within 155 days) are facing "on-chain surrender," and retail investors are concentrated on selling due to leveraged liquidations and realized losses.

The market value of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has shrunk by $2.57 billion, marking the largest decline since its launch, with capital outflows concentrated during U.S. trading hours, further pressuring prices. This pattern of retail selling and institutional buying represents a typical feature of capital shifting from weak investors to strong institutions.

On-chain data shows that whale wallets holding over 1,000 bitcoins continue to accumulate as small wallets exit, consistent with the early capital redistribution pattern seen in historical pullbacks.

However, it is important to note that wallet markings rely on blockchain verification and exchange labels, and the lack of KYC identity verification means that position data has certain limitations.

CryptoQuant data shows that the derivatives market is exhibiting de-leveraging characteristics, with a decline in open interest and a negative funding rate, indicating more long positions being closed rather than active withdrawal by whales.

However, the scale of institutional accumulation is difficult to offset the outflow pressure of ETF funds. Although MicroStrategy and Harvard's increase the position is considerable, it cannot hedge against the $2.57 billion ETF redemption, and it is difficult to distinguish between short-term accumulation and bull market traps in terms of form.

If ETF capital outflows continue until the end of the year, or if macroeconomic risks escalate, even if sovereign countries, enterprises, and other institutions increase their holdings, the liquidation price of Bitcoin may still further decline.

MicroStrategy can long-term dilute costs through financing strategies, and Harvard's investment cycle lasts up to ten years, with quarterly drawdowns having a limited impact on it, but retail investors and leveraged traders lack such buffers.

The final nature of this fund redistribution has yet to be determined: if the subsequent outflow of ETF funds stabilizes and institutional spot demand continues to follow, it may signal that the bottom is near; if capital outflows intensify along with macro pressures, the current increase the position may only be a short-term respite.

Bitcoin has fallen below $90,000, and long-term investors who can withstand volatility and short-term sensitive speculators have been identified. The final answer will be revealed in the capital flow over the next month.