The frying pan is on! The US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data is 119,000, will the crypto world see blood flowing tonight?

Brothers, in the past hour, the entire financial market went completely crazy! The US Department of Labor just released the September US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data, and it left everyone stunned—an increase of 119,000 jobs! What does this mean? The market expected only 52,000, and the previous value was only 22,000. This data is simply rubbing the expectations into the ground and even stepping on it a couple of times!
The market software on my phone instantly exploded, the US dollar index skyrocketed, US stock futures plunged directly, and the crypto world was filled with wailing. It is no exaggeration to say that tonight is destined to be a night to go down in history, and most people may not yet realize that a bloody storm has just begun.
How terrifying is this data?
We need to clarify what the 119,000 US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) mean. Brothers, this is not just "data better than expected"; this is a great assist to the Fed's hawkish stance!
Think about it, just a month ago, the market was still immersed in the panic of "the US economy is going to recession", and the previous value of 22,000 made everyone feel like "it's all over, the soft landing is going to become a hard landing". And what happened? In just a month, the data skyrocketed more than five times! What does this indicate? It indicates that the US economy is extremely resilient, and the labor market is scorching hot.
For the Federal Reserve, this is the best "rate hike permit". Uncle Powell can now confidently say: "See? The economy is doing so well, we have absolutely no need to rush into rate cuts!" Therefore, market expectations have turned 180 degrees in an instant— the probability of a rate cut in November has dropped from 70% yesterday to below 30%, with some more aggressive analysts starting to say "don't expect any rate cuts before 2026!"
Key point: This is not an ordinary positive signal, but a fatal blow to the expectations of interest rate cuts. The slogan "Higher for Longer" will completely become the main theme of the market starting today.
Three major shockwaves are on the way, are you ready?
The impact of this wave of US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data will hit in three layers like a tsunami, each layer capable of leaving you bankrupt.
The first wave: The dollar king returns, the apocalypse of non-USD assets.
As soon as the data came out, the US Dollar Index DXY skyrocketed from 106 to 108, which is a nuclear level increase in the forex market. Brothers, what does a strong dollar mean? It means that all risk assets priced in dollars have to die!
The crypto world is at the forefront: digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are essentially the fighter jets among risk assets. When the US dollar strengthens, funds will flood back to the United States, buying US Treasury bonds and dollar deposits, which are risk-free assets. Who would still be willing to hold onto the highly volatile cryptocurrencies? Thus, the selling pressure will come in waves and simply cannot be stopped.
Emerging markets are in turmoil: just look at the Turkish lira and Argentine peso today, they have fallen so drastically that even their mothers wouldn't recognize them. Funds are fleeing from all corners of the globe towards the United States, and this is the brutal reality of dollar hegemony.
Second wave: Liquidity dreams shattered, high interest rates become the new normal.
Previously, the market fantasized that the Federal Reserve would quickly cut interest rates to inject liquidity into the market. And now? The dream is over! With such strong US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), the Federal Reserve has enough confidence to maintain high interest rates and may even raise rates again.
What does it mean for the crypto world? It means there is no cheap capital anymore! How did the bull market of 2021 come about? The central bank flooded the market with money! How did the rebound in 2023 come about? Expectations of interest rate cuts! Now both of these have fallen through, and the source of market capital has been cut off. What will support high valuations?
What's worse is that high interest rates will continue to suppress risk appetite. Just think about it, the risk-free rate in the U.S. for one year is close to 5.5% now; who would still be willing to take the risk of liquidation to trade contracts? Funds will continuously flow from risk assets to fixed income products. Once this trend is established, it won't be reversed in just a day or two.
The third wave: The leverage apocalypse, a liquidation-style crash is on the way.
This is the most dangerous wave. Brothers, go check the contract data, there are over 20 billion USD in Bitcoin contract positions across the entire network, with long positions accounting for more than 60%. Among these long positions, how many have high leverage of 10x, 20x, or even 50x?
The $85,000 mark is a life-and-death line! Once it falls below, it will trigger a chain of liquidations:
• 85,000 broke → 10x leverage long positions began to be liquidated → price dropped to 84,000
• 84,000 reached → 20x leverage long explosion → Price dropped to 82,000
• 82,000 breaks again → 50x extreme leverage turns to dust → Price heads straight for below 80,000
This is a typical "death spiral", a cascading liquidation. Even more frightening is that many institutions have set up programmed stop losses that will automatically sell once the price hits a certain level. Therefore, during a downturn, the speed is often particularly fast, and you can't react in time.
Data shows: In the past 6 times when US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) exceeded expectations, Bitcoin's average decline within 24 hours was 7.2%. However, this time the data exceeded expectations by so much that the decline may be even deeper!
The crypto world is facing a life-and-death situation tonight: every coin is undergoing a trial.
Bitcoin: The 85,000 defense line is the Maginot Line.
BTC is now the focus of the entire market. The $85,000 level has significant technical meaning:
• It is the low point of September.
• It is the position of the 200-day moving average.
• It is the area of concentrated transactions in the early stage.
It can be said that 85,000 is supported by three factors: technology, psychology, and capital. But can this level hold? I am very pessimistic.
Why? Because the selling pressure is too heavy! Not only are there contract liquidations, but also panic selling in the spot market. Just think about it, will those early investors who bought in at 60,000 or 70,000 want to "take profits and exit" when they see such poor data? Will those institutions and miners sell their reserves in advance in the face of tightening liquidity expectations?
Once 85,000 breaks, what should we look at next?
• First target: 82,000 (previous low)
• Second target: 80,000 (round number)
• Ultimate defense line: 78,000 (annual line position)
But I think if 85,000 can't hold, 80,000 might not be able to hold either. Because panic sentiment will spread, the market needs to find a "despair bottom" to be able to accumulate energy again.
Ethereum: More Dangerous than Bitcoin
ETH's current situation is worse than BTC's. Why?
First, the narrative around Ethereum has been weakened. In a high interest rate environment, the yields from DeFi have become unattractive. Previously, you would say, "Staking ETH can yield 5% returns," but now U.S. bonds are at 5.5%. Who still plays DeFi?
Secondly, gas fees remain low. With on-chain activity being inactive, the ETH burn mechanism does not take effect, affecting the entire economic model.
Thirdly, institutional holdings are more concentrated. The top 1000 addresses of Ethereum hold a higher proportion of coins compared to Bitcoin. Once these large holders start to sell, the impact will be even more severe.
From a technical perspective, ETH's key support is at $2500. If it falls below this level, it may head straight to $2300. The resistance level above is at $2750. Want to break through? It's going to be tough.
SOL, DOGE, MEME coin: liquidity crisis imminent
These small coins may suffer even more tonight. Why? Because of liquidity! With such poor US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data, the market's risk aversion is rising, and funds will prioritize withdrawing from the highest-risk assets.
The key support for SOL is at $150; if it breaks, we will look at $130.
DOGE, this purely sentiment-driven coin, may drop back to 0.15 or even 0.12.
Various MEME coins may see a bloodbath tonight, with drops of 30%-50% not being surprising.
Brothers, remember one thing: in a bear market, all altcoins are the β of Bitcoin; if Bitcoin drops by 10%, they start dropping by 20%.
The panic index has skyrocketed, and market sentiment has dropped to freezing point.
The panic in the market can no longer be described as "worry"; it is simply "the apocalypse has arrived".
The VIX fear index soared directly from 20 to 28, and this was before the US stock market opened. Once the US stock market opens tonight, it is estimated that it could surge above 30. What does 30 mean? In March 2020, during the pandemic crash, the VIX was over 80, but usually, exceeding 30 is already a sign of extreme panic.
The panic index in the crypto world is even more exaggerated, dropping directly from 60 to 35 (the lower the value, the more panic). What does this indicate? It indicates that the market has瞬间转为"恐慌"，而且还在加深.
The data on capital flows is even more alarming: In the past 4 hours, the issuance of stablecoins USDT and USDC has surged, indicating that everyone is exchanging coins for US dollars. Meanwhile, the amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum flowing out of exchanges is also increasing, suggesting that people are withdrawing coins to their wallets, preparing to "lie flat" for the long term or hedge against risks.
This shift in sentiment often indicates that the short-term bottom has not yet arrived. Because the panic sentiment has a fermentation process, from "worry" to "fear" and then to "despair", we may have just reached the "fear" stage now, and it might only be tomorrow morning that we experience the true "despair" moment.
Survival Guide for Bros: Do this tonight to stay alive.
After all this bad news, let's get to the point. In this market situation, how can we operate to survive the night?
The First Iron Law: Refuse to catch flying knives with bare hands.
Many old friends want to buy the dip when they see the price drop, thinking "It has fallen so much that it should rebound now." Brother, this kind of thinking is especially dangerous tonight!
Remember: In the face of trends, any bottom-fishing behavior is like a mantis trying to stop a car. The US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data is so strong that the trend has completely turned bearish. Trying to bottom-fish at this time is not investing, it's gambling.
Correct approach: wait for a rebound, then reduce your position! For example, if Bitcoin drops to 85,000 and rebounds to 86,000 or 87,000, that's your opportunity to reduce your position. Don't think "I'll wait a bit longer for a rebound; it might go back to 90,000"; the market won't give you that opportunity.
The second iron rule: Cash is king, retain strength.
The most important thing now is not how much you earn, but how to survive. How to survive? Have cash on hand!
Operation Suggestions:
• If there are still full positions, the rebound tonight must be reduced to below 50%.
• If it is already below 50%, consider reducing it to 30%
• Keep 70% cash, waiting for the real golden pit.
When will this golden pit appear? It could be tomorrow, it could be next week, or it could be a month later. But as long as you have cash in hand, there is an opportunity. Those who are reluctant to sell now will only regret not cutting losses earlier when it drops to 70,000.
Third Iron Rule: 85,000 is the lifeline, break it and defensive mode will be activated.
The core of all operations tonight is to keep an eye on the 85,000 level.
If 85,000 holds:
• You can take a small position (10%-20%) to bet on a rebound in the range of 85,000-86,000.
• However, the stop loss must be set at 84,800, and must run if it falls below.
• Don't set the rebound target too high; consider taking profits at 88,000.
If 85,000 is broken:
• Don't hesitate, immediately reduce your position by another 30%
• Don't have any illusions of "selling after a rebound".
• Consider buying back at 80,000 or even 78,000.
The ultimate secret of the defensive mode: it is better to miss the rebound later than to be trapped halfway up the mountain. Selling now, you may lose a maximum of 20%; but if you don’t sell, a drop of 50% or even more is also possible.
The Fourth Iron Rule: Stay away from high leverage, as being alive allows for output.
If you're still willing to trade contracts tonight, I respect you as a man, but your wallet might not be safe.
Specific recommendations:
• All leverage above 10x, now immediately close positions.
• With 5x leverage, set a stop loss, and top up the margin if the margin rate is below 200%.
• Spot traders should avoid contracts, especially short positions, as the volatility is too high, and a spike can liquidate you.
Remember, in this kind of market, the "wick" phenomenon on exchanges will be particularly frequent. You see the price drop to 85,000, and the next second it might spike to 83,000 and liquidate the longs, then it quickly rebounds to 86,000. You won't have time to react, and your position will be gone.
History always has an astonishing resemblance: looking back at the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) in 2018.
Some may ask: "Does data really have such a big impact?" Let's take a look at history.
On October 5, 2018, the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data was also much better than expected (250,000 vs expected 180,000), and the Federal Reserve was in a rate hike cycle. What was the performance of Bitcoin after the data was released?
• On the same day: dropped from $6600 to $6400, a decrease of 3%
• 3 days later: drop to 6200
• One week later: fell below 6000
• One month later: dropped to 4500
The entire process dropped by more than 30%, and it was completed within a month. How many people bought the dip only to find themselves halfway down? How many people got liquidated because they "thought it had dropped enough"?
How similar is the current situation to that of 2018? Both are periods of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, both have data exceeding expectations, and both see tightening market liquidity. History does not simply repeat itself, but it often rhymes with the same cadence.
Practical advice for different investors
If you are a short-term trader:
Don't sleep tonight, keep an eye on the market. If 85,000 breaks, go short with a target of 82,000 and 80,000; if 85,000 holds, wait for a rebound to 87,000 to short, and set the stop loss at 87,500. Remember, short-term trading is all about following the trend, and right now the trend is bearish, so don't go long.
If you are a medium-term investor:
When you wake up tomorrow, if the price is above 85,000, reduce the position to below 30%; if it falls below 85,000, reduce it directly to 10%. Then go to work, go on with life, and don't look at it. Wait until the fear index returns to below 20, and then consider gradually buying back.
If you are a long-term holder:
Turn off the computer and go to sleep. 70,000 or 80,000 makes no difference to you because you believe Bitcoin can reach 200,000 or 300,000. But remember, when you do dollar-cost averaging in the future, receive it in your wallet, don't keep it on the exchange.
If you are a newcomer just entering the field:
Congratulations, the first lesson has arrived! Don't trade tonight, learn first. Observe how the market fluctuates, see how panic spreads, and watch how the seasoned investors respond. Consider this money as tuition, but don't pay too much.
After the storm, only the true hunters will take action.
After all this, I want to leave you with a saying: In the financial market, surviving is the greatest victory.
Tonight's storm is a nightmare for many, but for a few, it is an opportunity. Those hunters who bought in at 85,000, 80,000, or even 75,000 will look back a year from now and be thankful for today's plunge.
But what is the premise? It's that you have to survive until then. So tonight, take care of your own hands, watch your positions, don't gamble, don't be greedy, don't act impulsively.
Finally, one last time, let me emphasize:
• Cash is king, keep 70% of your bullets.
• 85,000 is the lifeline, if it breaks then defense is lost.
• Refuse to catch the bottom, reduce positions on rebounds
• Stay away from leverage, don't play with contracts
After the storm, the market will reward those calm, rational, and disciplined investors. And tonight is the touchstone to test whether you can become a "survivor."
Brothers, hold on! Tomorrow the sun will rise as usual, but whether your account can recover depends on how you operate tonight. Remember the advice of the old investors: don't go against the Federal Reserve, don't go against the trend, and don't go against your own wallet.
Good luck to everyone, see you tomorrow! #逆势上涨币种推荐 #美联储会议纪要将公布 #比特币行情观察 Bitcoin market observation #