BITCOIN DOWN

Bitcoin has been below its 365-day moving average of $102,000 since last Friday (14), sparking debate among analysts about a possible bear market. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 10, matching the panic levels seen in early and mid-2022.

As of today (20), about US$ 700 billion had disappeared from the market in the last month. Despite the intense fear and significant technical breakdowns, mixed signals from macroeconomic trends and activities of large investors keep experts divided on the immediate direction of cryptocurrencies.

Growing technical concerns

The second drop of Bitcoin below $100,000 in a week has raised alarms. Now, the coin is being traded below the 365-day moving average, a level that marked regime changes in the bear markets of 2018 and 2021. Detailed analyses show that this indicator effectively separates the bullish and bearish phases throughout the cycles.

The decline is not limited to the price. On-chain data shows Bitcoin below the realized price for coins held for 6 to 12 months at $94.6k. This is the base cost for the so-called “convicted buyers of the bull cycle.” If the price remains below this level, many investors will incur losses, which could increase selling pressure.

Bitcoin perpetual futures recorded their largest weekly increase in open interest since April, rising to over $3.3 billion. Many traders set limit orders to buy on the dip when Bitcoin fell to below $98,000. However, prices continued to decline, triggering those orders and creating leveraged exposure in a declining market.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt highlighted his concerns about his technical analysis. Brandt pointed out a broad reversal on November 11, followed by eight days of lower highs and a broad top pattern. His bearish projections are $81,000 and $58,000.

Contrary impulses in the bear market

However, some experts say that these conditions do not confirm a large-scale bear market. They refer to the current phase as a “mid-cycle breakdown,” a risky period that requires more signals to confirm a trend. Three triggers could confirm a bear market:

Bitcoin remaining below the 365-day moving average for four to six weeks, long-term investors selling over 1 million BTC within 60 days, a negative MACD across the market. Signals from large investors and macroeconomic fundamentals

Although fear indices indicate capitulation, on-chain data shows an increase in Bitcoin accumulation by large investors. Addresses with 1,000 or more BTC have increased, even with falling prices. This suggests that institutional and major investors see the decline as a buying opportunity, not the beginning of a prolonged bear market.

Macroeconomic fundamentals contradict the bear market

The main argument against a bear market comes from macroeconomic fundamentals. Global liquidity is at a historical record, with more than 80% of central banks loosening policies. This broad monetary easing historically benefits risk assets, with cryptos being susceptible to waves of liquidity.

Macroeconomic analysts highlight that central banks are cutting rates and adding liquidity. Data from the Bank for International Settlements confirms the trend: dollar credit grew by 6% and euro credit increased by 13% year-on-year up to the second quarter of 2025. Credit expansion generally drives increases in asset prices.