On Thursday, all three major US stock indices fell collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.84%, the S&P 500 down 1.56%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 2.15%. Large tech stocks fell sharply. The release of US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which was delayed by 48 days, has further buried the crypto market in a big pit. In fact, this delayed data can also be seen as meaningless. Currently, the market is overly speculating that the Fed will not cut rates in December. According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 39.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 60.4%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by the Fed by January next year is 50.2%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 29.7%, with a cumulative 50 basis point cut probability at 20.2%. Market sentiment is further panicking, with Bitcoin dropping to a low of 86050 and Ethereum to a low of 2785, while trading volume is increasing. The altcoin market is even more chaotic. Next, we will have to see how the Fed's "hawkish🦅 and dovish🐦" strategies play out, and how Trump will try to turn the tide. Follow Yibo to grasp real-time dynamics in the crypto world!

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Bitcoin performed well yesterday during the afternoon session, reaching a peak of 93122 US dollars before entering a brief consolidation phase. However, the good times didn't last long; in the evening session, influenced by news, the market first saw a slight drop to around 92563 US dollars, followed by a sharp decline. By midnight, the market had fallen to a low of 86050 US dollars, showing a significant daily drop. The market attempted a slight rebound in the morning, but after hitting the resistance level at around 88200 US dollars, it fell back again, with weak rebound momentum. From a technical perspective, the four-hour cycle has already given a clear bearish signal. The Bollinger Bands have been diverging downwards, and there has been no significant support level forming an effective barrier below. The bearish momentum is overwhelming, and the market has completely entered a one-sided downward mode. It is noteworthy that several key support levels previously recognized by the market have been breached during this decline, without any decent resistance appearing, further confirming the current absolute dominance of the bears. Focusing again on the hourly level, after experiencing four consecutive bearish candles, the price briefly fell below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, followed by a short-lived rebound. However, it is important to be cautious as the hourly Bollinger Bands still exhibit an outward-opening shape, with bearish momentum not yet fully exhausted, and the overall downward pace of the market has not been broken by this minor rebound. From a trend logic perspective, the short-term rebound is more likely a technical correction in the downward process, accumulating energy for further declines, rather than a signal of trend reversal.

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The trend of Ethereum is highly synchronized with Bitcoin. After reaching a high point of 3062 USD yesterday afternoon, it also entered a sideways consolidation range. As of the evening session, the market peaked at around 3049 USD but failed to break through the previous high resistance, subsequently starting a downward trend in line with the overall market rhythm. During the early morning hours, the market dropped to around 2785 USD before temporarily stopping the decline. Although there was a slight rebound in the morning, it faced pressure again at the 2900 USD mark and fell back again, currently in a slight consolidation state. Technical analysis shows that Ethereum's four-hour level also presents a clear bearish pattern. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the lower space is fully opened, with bearish volume continuing to be released without signs of interruption, showcasing an overall one-sided downward trend. Similar to Bitcoin, multiple key support levels of Ethereum have been consecutively breached during this decline, further solidifying bearish dominance.

In operations, it is essential to adhere to the principle of strict risk control. Long positions must be entered and exited quickly to lock in profits promptly, avoiding greed and prolonged battles. Short positions can be strategically placed based on rebound resistance levels, while also setting strict stop-loss points to prevent risk from spiraling out of control due to short-term fluctuations. Current market sentiment is weak, and there is a high degree of uncertainty in price movements. Investors need to remain rational and should not blindly attempt to catch the bottom or chase after rising prices. It is advisable to patiently wait for clear signals indicating a stop in the decline before adjusting operational strategies.