Exploded! As soon as the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data for September was released, it completely shook the market upside down! The market originally expected an increase of only 50,000 jobs, but the actual data skyrocketed to 119,000, more than double the expectation. This is simply a strong signal for the Fed to maintain high interest rates for a longer period.

Let’s take a look at the key data: the number of new jobs added is 119,000, reaching a four-month high; the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, the highest level since the end of 2021; hourly wages increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, although a bit weak, the impact is not significant. From an industry perspective, sectors like healthcare, dining, and social assistance performed well, while transportation and government sectors lagged.
The impact of this data is huge. First of all, interest rate cuts are basically out of the question, and the market's hopes for rate cuts have been dashed; high interest rates are set to last longer. Secondly, the dollar is set to strengthen again, and non-dollar currencies and risk assets will suffer as a result. Finally, the leverage risk has significantly increased, so those who are heavily long should be cautious, or they might face a liquidation crisis.
The Fed is currently embroiled in heated debates. Doves are worried that the job market won't hold up, while hawks are fixated on inflation. To make matters worse, there won't be any important data released in the next two months, so they can't even find new grounds for their arguments. In the December interest rate meeting, they will likely have to make a wild guess about whether to cut rates, so it's highly probable that the interest rate will remain unchanged, and everything will depend on the November US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data.
There are also rumors about a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, but don't take it too seriously; don't believe it until an agreement is signed.
The cryptocurrency market is also having a tough time tonight. The 85,000 defense line for Bitcoin looks set to be breached, and once it falls, it will definitely trigger a chain reaction of declines. Mainstream coins like Ethereum and Solana won't escape either; a liquidity crisis is imminent. The fear index has skyrocketed, and market sentiment has hit rock bottom. #美联储会议纪要将公布