Currently, in Geneva, Switzerland, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio is leading a delegation in talks with Ukraine and European officials regarding the new "28 Article Russia-Ukraine Peace" draft.

According to the latest news, Rubio stated that the current talks have yielded good results and made significant progress. The next step requires approval from the presidents of the two countries, referring here to Trump and Zelensky.

Given the current situation, the amendments to this 28-item draft are indeed good, representing an important turning point for peace between Russia and Ukraine.

A simple overview and personal expectations

1. In the previous 28 peace proposals, Rubio stated that the agreement was too accommodating to Russia, and at that time, the agreement was also opposed by Europe and Ukraine, with the core opposition being the issue of territorial concessions.

2. Rubio stated before meeting with the European and Ukrainian delegations that "concessions must be made," referring to the need for both Russia and Ukraine to make concessions, with the core concession for Ukraine being the issue of territorial cession.

3. Based on Rubio's current attitude, if the results of this trilateral negotiation are positive, it can be reasonably expected that Ukraine has made concessions on territorial issues.

4. However, my personal analysis is that Ukraine's initial concessions on territorial cessions will not be too significant, otherwise it would not be a concession but a compromise, which clearly does not align with the rhythm of the negotiations.

The normal negotiation rhythm is to first make slight concessions to see the other party's attitude, then engage in multiple rounds of negotiations, ultimately reaching an agreement between both sides. Therefore, according to this logic, Ukraine's initial territorial concessions are unlikely to be very optimistic.

5. Based on the logic of point "4", this initial concession makes it difficult to directly reach peace with Russia; multiple rounds of negotiations are inevitable. It is very challenging to achieve peace directly in the short term.

6. Of course, the above expectations are the most optimistic ones. If the current tripartite agreement does not contain any content regarding territorial concessions, then the possibility of negotiating with Russia is very small. As mentioned before, Russia's demands regarding territory are one of the core points in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

7. Currently, the news still comes from the three parties of the US, Ukraine, and Europe. We still need to wait for the specific agreement to be announced in order to effectively assess whether peace can be achieved. At the moment, there is a slightly optimistic expectation.

8. If all goes well, the original plan is to form a "draft" of the new 28 agreements after the tripartite discussions by Thursday of the new week (November 27).