With only 6 days left until November 2025, the dramatic volatility of the cryptocurrency market is intensifying, and at the core of it all is the shocking reversal in expectations for a Fed rate cut. Over the previous two days, the market’s enthusiasm for a Fed rate cut in December cooled sharply, with the probability dropping to less than 30%, and Bitcoin plummeted to the 80,000 level amid a wave of panic selling by retail investors. However, on November 21, dovish signals from the Fed’s third-in-command completely reversed the situation, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December surging to 69.4%, and the probability of holding rates steady dropping to just 30.6%. Looking further ahead, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by January next year stands at 56.9%, with a 22.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut. In this tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the contrast between retail capitulation and institutional contrarian positioning is stark, as Bitcoin breaks through to 88,000, highlighting the complexity of market manipulation. Follow Yibo for real-time crypto updates!

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After testing the 80,000 level last Friday, Bitcoin did not see a significant pullback; instead, it entered a stable upward channel with some volatility. Looking at the specific trend, after hitting a low of around 84,200 yesterday, the market began a clear upward offensive, peaking at 86,800 during the midday session. This was followed by some mild profit-taking, with a brief pullback to the 85,500 area for consolidation. However, bullish momentum did not weaken; after consolidation, the market rallied again, reaching a stage high of 88,094 as of this morning and is currently undergoing a slight pullback for correction. For the next move, the effectiveness of key breakouts and support levels will be the main focus. If the market can break above the 88,500 resistance with strong volume, it would open up further upside and reinforce the short-term bullish trend. Conversely, if the current pullback continues, close attention should be paid to the critical support in the 86,500-86,000 range at the middle Bollinger Band. Technically, Bitcoin’s current technical pattern and volume coordination present a short-term bullish outlook; tracking the effectiveness of breakouts above resistance will be key to capturing the short-term market rhythm.

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After a previous period of adjustment, Ethereum’s rebound has been even more robust. Last Friday, Ethereum hit a recent low of 2,621 and immediately began to rebound, climbing to the 2,805 level. On Saturday, the market entered a brief period of consolidation, quickly stabilizing after dipping to around $2,700. Yesterday’s daytime session continued the upward trend, testing a high of 2,857; although it has since pulled back to around 2,800 for consolidation, the overall strong pattern remains unchanged. On the sentiment front, as the rebound continues, earlier panic has gradually subsided, signs of market recovery are increasingly apparent, and the long atmosphere is steadily returning, providing a solid emotional foundation for Ethereum’s further rise. From a technical perspective, on the 1-hour chart, the three Bollinger Bands are simultaneously expanding upward, forming a classic strong upward channel. The price has already broken and held above the upper band, which is a clear sign of short-term strength. Overall, Ethereum is highly likely to continue a slow, steady rise with further upside potential, and bullish momentum is worth looking forward to.