The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is currently 67%.

Analyzing whether the Fed will cut interest rates should not rely on non-farm employment data, because the data serves zz, and when the need to cut interest rates arises, a significant downward adjustment will be made.
When judging whether the Fed will cut interest rates, there are two points to pay attention to: one is whether it should cut, and the other is whether it dares to cut.
1. Should we lower it: This does not require much discussion, as the interest rate cuts that started on September 24 of last year indicate that the scale of U.S. debt is about to hit the debt ceiling.
2. Dare to lower: Domestically, if US Treasury bond yields do not decrease for a long time, then one can borrow USD to invest in US Treasury bonds, and arbitrage will be trapped. Therefore, the key question is whether US Treasury bond yields can weaken. The weakening of US Treasury bond yields mainly has two factors: first, overseas capital should not significantly sell off US Treasury bonds, for example, the University of Tokyo holds so many US Treasury bond chips and should not sell them off in concentration; second, the Fed's QE directly buys down US Treasury bond yields.
Externally, be vigilant against the risk of significant capital outflow. For example, in the past two years, the central bank of Dongda provided foreign exchange swap points and locked domestic capital in Dongda by going long on Chinese government bonds and shorting the forward RMB, in order to stabilize the exchange rate and prevent it from flowing to Xida. If Dongda's central bank continues to operate this way and the swap points rise rather than fall, then the Fed would not dare to cut interest rates.
Therefore, observing whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December mainly depends on whether the Fed dares to cut rates. Two indicators are provided: first, monitor whether the recent US Treasury bond yields will decrease; second, check whether the foreign exchange swap points provided by the central bank will decline.
If you ask for my personal opinion, I certainly think there will be a decrease. The Fed has a set of expectations management, but it cannot stop the trend of interest rate cuts and QE.

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