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The crypto market is following the Thanksgiving pattern of previous years.

Cryptocurrencies are showing their initial recovery after the November sell-off. Indicators are similar to the conditions seen around Thanksgiving in 2022 and 2023.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $91,000 level, ETH climbed back above $3,000, and the broader market is somewhat cautiously in the green. This rebound comes as we head into a long US holiday weekend.

Market Indicators Turn Positive After Weeks of Fear

Data on the Fear and Greed Index shows a rise from 11 last week to 22 today, but it remains at "Extreme Fear."

This change coincides with a steady rise in the average crypto RSI, which rose from 38.5 seven days ago to 58.3 today. This suggests increasing strength following deep oversold conditions earlier in the month.
The MACD performed positively for the first time since November.

Approximately 82% of the cryptocurrencies tracked are currently showing positive trend momentum. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are all in bullish territory on the MACD heatmap.

Price action is influenced by this change. Bitcoin is up 6% for the week. Ethereum has gained almost 8%. Solana has risen almost 8% in the same period.

Market capitalization has increased by 1.1% over the past 24 hours, reaching 3.21% on the market.
In both 2022 and 2023, the market entered Thanksgiving after a sharp decline and then stabilized until December.

In 2022, Bitcoin fell to around $16,000. By Thanksgiving, selling pressure had subsided, and the market was on the wrong side heading into Christmas.

This was not a rally, but a deep bearish consolidation phase.

In 2023, Bitcoin entered Thanksgiving at $37,000 after a sharp correction in September and October. Strong ETF expectations and improving liquidity conditions propelled BTC to $43,600 by Christmas. It was a classic bull rally in early December.

This year, this pattern repeats a familiar element: the November crash arrived early, and by Thanksgiving, selling momentum had waned.

Bitcoin's 90-day Total Volume Delta has shifted from persistent selling dominance to neutral, suggesting that aggressive sellers are backing down. Investment rates and leverage data also support this interpretation.

Liquidity damage continues to shape the current cycle

Market makers were forced to reduce their balance sheets, weakening market depth across exchanges. This fragility persisted throughout November.

Bitcoin typically makes its biggest moves in short bursts when liquidity recovers. A strong December rally could follow if the Federal Reserve adopts a more lenient stance.

On-chain data aligns with this view. Users still prefer to borrow Bitcoin rather than sell it.

BTC accounts for over 53% of all collateral on the platform. This behavior suppresses immediate selling pressure and maintains the stability of spot markets. But it also adds hidden leverage that can increase future volatility.

Three factors now appear to be similar to the Thanksgiving outlook for 2022 and 2023:

Seller fading: Buyers registered on neutral servers of Total Volume Delta, indicating the end of forced selling.

Momentum recovery: MACD and RSI metrics have turned sharply after the November lows.

Liquidity stability: Market vulnerabilities remain, but volatility has cooled and ETF outflows have slowed.

If this pattern continues, December will yield one of two outcomes based on the past two years:

If liquidity remains weak, there will be sideways consolidation around 2022.

If macro conditions become supportive, there will be a short, sharp rally around 2023.

The determining factor will likely be the Federal Reserve's tone in early December and the behavior of Bitcoin ETF flows. Weak liquidity means that even moderate inflows can move prices rapidly.

December could bring a large move in either direction.

The market has entered a transition phase rather than a clear trend. Sentiment remains extremely fearful, but price and momentum indicators suggest a recovery.

Bitcoin's position above $91,000 suggests buyers are willing to defend key levels, but order book depth remains thin.

As selling pressure eases and technical momentum builds, the environment now resembles the post-Thanksgiving realignments that have characterized the last two year-end cycles.

If this pattern continues, December will not be flat. This will likely bring a decisive move as liquidity conditions change.

However, direction in the coming weeks will depend more on macro signals and ETF demand than on crypto narratives.