Will the Fed cut interest rates in December? The market is currently 50-50.

According to the latest odds from CME, there is a divergence in expectations among federal funds futures traders regarding the December FOMC meeting:

• Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut: 44.4%
• Probability of staying put: 55.6%

In other words, the market is currently more inclined for the Fed to continue holding, but the possibility of a rate cut is also not small. What does this probability distribution indicate? Investors are still a bit uncertain about the direction of future inflation data and are waiting for the latest economic data in November to set the tone.

The actions of the Fed have a direct impact on global asset prices, especially on the liquidity of the crypto market. Therefore, the economic data and speeches from Fed officials in the coming weeks will be key points of focus.