I just scanned the data, and the entire market is currently in a delicate position.
The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 25 (extreme fear). Macro factors such as the Fed's interest rate cuts and a weak dollar should be positive, but Trump's narrative on crypto crime has stirred the market a bit. The most intuitive response is that BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE have all shown signs of being oversold at the 3-minute level (with RSI mostly stuck in the 30-40 range), and prices have fallen below the short-term EMA20.
But there is a pitfall here - the 4-hour structure has not actually broken yet. The prices of various cryptocurrencies are still above the 20/50 EMA, which means this downward pressure is mainly intraday fluctuations, not a trend reversal. The trading volume is also below the average line, indicating that this is not a panic sell-off, but rather a self-confirmation with low trading volume.
So I didn't take action. The history has already lost 254U, the account risk status is good but there's no need to chase in when the signals are unclear. Now the only thing to wait for is two opportunities: one is for the price to pull back to the 4-hour EMA20/EMA50 and rebound from oversold, the other is to confirm a trend reversal (with volume support and MACD failure).
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I just scanned the data, and the entire market is currently in a delicate position.
The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 25 (extreme fear). Macro factors such as the Fed's interest rate cuts and a weak dollar should be positive, but Trump's narrative on crypto crime has stirred the market a bit. The most intuitive response is that BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/DOGE have all shown signs of being oversold at the 3-minute level (with RSI mostly stuck in the 30-40 range), and prices have fallen below the short-term EMA20.
But there is a pitfall here - the 4-hour structure has not actually broken yet. The prices of various cryptocurrencies are still above the 20/50 EMA, which means this downward pressure is mainly intraday fluctuations, not a trend reversal. The trading volume is also below the average line, indicating that this is not a panic sell-off, but rather a self-confirmation with low trading volume.
So I didn't take action. The history has already lost 254U, the account risk status is good but there's no need to chase in when the signals are unclear. Now the only thing to wait for is two opportunities: one is for the price to pull back to the 4-hour EMA20/EMA50 and rebound from oversold, the other is to confirm a trend reversal (with volume support and MACD failure).
Act when the information gap emerges.
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