The market shows signs of stabilization, and structural opportunities still exist.

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown some noteworthy signals amidst volatility, reflecting that the current market is at a critical stage, from capital flows and derivative risks to the performance of structural sectors.

The outflow of stablecoins has slowed, which may indicate that a temporary bottom is nearing.

On-chain data shows that the total market value of stablecoins experienced a net outflow of about $3 billion in mid-November, with noticeable redemption pressure on stablecoins like USDC, while the scale of USDT remained relatively stable. This outflow trend reflects the cautious sentiment of funds during the market adjustment process.

However, since late November, the net outflow of stablecoins has significantly slowed down, showing initial signs of stabilization. From a historical cycle perspective, multiple market bottoms have been accompanied by a rebound in the supply of stablecoins. This signal is worth continuous attention; if the market value of stablecoins can stabilize and rebound, it may indicate that the market is about to welcome a new round of capital inflows.

Risks are accumulating in the derivatives market, and fluctuations at key price levels may intensify.

The derivatives market is also signaling an increase in uncertainty. The implied volatility of short-term options has quickly risen from the lows in October to a high range for the year, indicating that the market's expectations for short-term price fluctuations have significantly heated up.

It is even more alarming to note the risks brought about by the distribution of options positions. At the end of November, a large number of put options concentrated at $80,000 and call options accumulated at $125,000 by the end of December significantly amplify the Gamma risk near these key price levels. Once the price approaches these strike prices, short-term volatility may be sharply amplified, and investors need to be prepared for corresponding risk management.

The structural sector's resilience remains, and the long-term value foundation has not changed.

Despite the overall market correction, the fundamentals of several structural sectors remain solid. The RWA (Real-World Asset) sector has continued to grow in on-chain scale throughout the year, with increasing institutional participation, indicating an accelerating trend of convergence between traditional finance and the crypto world.

The Solana ecosystem remains active during the pullback, with on-chain user activity and transaction volume still on a healthy growth trajectory. The locked value of Ethereum Layer 2 solutions has maintained an expansion trend throughout the year, with technological innovation and practical applications continuing to advance. The fundamentals of these sectors have not experienced substantial deterioration, and the current adjustment may actually provide better positioning opportunities for long-term investors.

Overall, the market is undergoing a complex consolidation phase. The slowdown in the outflow of stablecoins provides a positive short-term signal, while the accumulation of risks in the derivatives market requires vigilance. The resilience of structural sectors continues to support medium- to long-term value investment. At this critical moment, investors need to pay attention to short-term risks while not overlooking the structural opportunities in the market for the medium to long term.

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