#成长值抽奖赢iPhone17和周边 #十二月降息预测

[December Rate Cut Outlook: This Time, Will the Federal Reserve Really Ease Up?]
This week's macro signals have collectively turned dovish:
U.S. retail sales and PPI have明显走弱
The labor market continues to cool.
Multiple investment banks have raised the probability of a rate cut in December to 70-85%.
The US dollar index continues to decline, and funds are re-pricing risk assets.
Both traditional finance and the crypto market are asking the same question:
Will the Federal Reserve really cut interest rates earlier this time?
1. Why has the market suddenly pushed the probability of interest rate cuts so high?
The reasons are very clear, all three paths have shifted towards a more accommodative stance:
Economic data begins to "slowly cool down"
Consumer spending, employment, and inflation are all cooling simultaneously.
This means that a soft landing is occurring, and the Federal Reserve can more easily ease its tightening.
The interest rate differential is narrowing, and the trend of the US dollar weakening is accelerating.
The US dollar index fell from the range of 106 to 99.
This is very friendly to risk assets, and the speed of foreign capital inflow has significantly increased.
The market has already bet on easing.
The bond market pricing shows that a rate cut is expected 3-4 times in the next 12 months.
In short:
If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in December, it will instead need to consider how to repair market expectations.
Second, if interest rates really drop in December, how will the cryptocurrency market respond?
Historical laws show:
Before the rate cut: high volatility fluctuations (currently experiencing)
After the interest rate cut: Bitcoin usually迎来主升浪
Loose cycle: The performance of ETH, SOL, and ALTS often outperforms BTC.
The release of dollar liquidity brings a threefold positive feedback:
Capital Reflow Risk Assets
U.S. Treasury yields are declining, and funds are more willing to enter high-growth sectors.
ETF, institutional demand increases, miner pressure decreases, Bitcoin supply side improves
This structure is the starting framework for a complete bull market.
3. What will happen if there is no interest rate cut in December?
As long as there are no hawkish signals of "continuing to raise interest rates," the market will still bet on:
Interest rate cuts from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2025
Short-term pullbacks may occur, but they will not change the main trend.
The key of this cycle is not on the "day of interest rate cuts."
It depends on when the market confirms that the tightening cycle has truly ended.
And the current market has basically formed this consensus.
4. How should we layout in the current stage (before December)?
BTC: Accumulate in the range of 80,000 to 85,000 USD
This area is a key accumulation zone, determining the strength of the future main upward wave.
ETH: Deterministic Enhancement
Returning to 3000 dollars is a signal of emotional recovery, and after the easing takes effect, institutions usually increase their positions in ETH.
AI, DePIN: The High Growth Sector That Benefits Most from the Interest Rate Reduction Cycle
The narrative of technological dividends will be rapidly amplified due to improved liquidity.
Shanzhai: The sentiment spreads fastest after loosening.
But it is necessary to adhere to varieties with strong narratives, strong consensus, and strong liquidity.
Summary:
The interest rate cut in December is not the end, but the starting point of liquidity for a new cycle.
The market has already entered the "loose repricing" stage in advance, and strategies should gradually shift from defense to offense.