The rise of Kalshi redefines the duopoly with Polymarket in the prediction markets.

Source: CritpoTendencia Original Title: Kalshi's rise redefines the duopoly with Polymarket in prediction markets Original Link: Kalshi has surprised the financial ecosystem by doubling its valuation in a few weeks, consolidating a duopoly scenario alongside Polymarket within the prediction market, both in its regulated aspect and in the crypto-native.

This new stage redefines the competitive landscape for institutional investors, hedge funds, and derivatives analysts, amid a wave of interest and fresh capital.

The capital increase propels Kalshi to a dominant position

The latest round of investment raised Kalshi's valuation to $11 billion, after attracting nearly $1 billion in capital led by specialized venture firms. This leap comes just weeks after its previous round, which valued the company at $5 billion.

The accelerated growth in operating volume and the influx of institutional capital reflect a validation of the regulated model that Kalshi develops under the direct supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The favorable regulatory environment in the United States allowed Kalshi to surpass Polymarket in trading volume during the last quarter, reaching nearly 60% of the global market. This progress is supported by its access to institutional liquidity and its focus on regulatory compliance, key elements to attract more conservative flows.

Structural differences

The rivalry between Kalshi and Polymarket marks a turning point for the sector. Kalshi, fully regulated and aimed at traditional investors, prioritizes transparency, legal compliance, and operational suitability to existing frameworks. This approach facilitates the entry of institutional capital and offers products that comply with strong regulatory standards.

Polymarket, in contrast, bases its proposal on blockchain and decentralization, positioning itself as an agile and innovative platform, although exposed to greater regulatory challenges and adoption barriers in traditional segments.

The clash between these models shapes a future where institutional trust and crypto innovation will compete to lead the prediction markets segment.

Prediction markets are entering a stage of maturity

The consolidation of the Kalshi-Polymarket duopoly points to an accelerated maturation of the sector, moving from a speculative niche to a set of useful instruments for hedging, arbitrage, and risk diversification among sophisticated investors.

Furthermore, the growing liquidity achieved by Kalshi and the thematic diversification of its markets -political, economic, sports, and more- anticipate international expansion.

For institutional funds, the existence of a regulated platform like Kalshi serves as an entry point with lower exposure to legal risk, greater transparency, and a clear alignment with international standards. Meanwhile, the growth of Polymarket demonstrates that the demand for decentralized innovation remains strong, attracting alternative capital and technological talent.

The next phase of the sector will depend on regulatory stability, institutional adoption, and the ability of both firms to expand their offerings and sustain global user interest.