Last week, the speculation about the Fed's interest rate cut led to a limited rebound in Bitcoin. I mentioned in the live channel that Bitcoin wouldn't break through the 95,000-96,000 range. After the favourable information settles, the market maker will continue to dump. It's hard to sustain interest rate cuts at the beginning of 2026. Yesterday, there was another wave of reaction to Japan's interest rate hike, causing the market to fall further. Personally, I think today's A-shares are performing well, with most stocks rising. The probability of a rate hike in Japan in December is low; the logic is simple. Since the U.S. is cutting rates in December, the dollar will depreciate, and the yen will naturally appreciate. So Japan just needs to wait for the U.S. rate cut to see the strength of the yen's rebound. If necessary, they can actively raise rates in early 2026. Today's decline in Crypto Assets further indicates that the market has shifted from divergence to a unified view of the Bear Market. With a slight unfavourable information factor, institutions and retail investors sold off together. This aligns with my judgment on November 3 that the market has entered a Bear Market cycle. Although we weren't as early as others who turned bearish above 120,000, we reacted in a timely manner. We will continue to watch the Bear Market, likely until the fourth quarter of 2026, and consider buying low again after the Fed's Powell retires next year and rates are cut alongside balance sheet expansion.
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Last week, the speculation about the Fed's interest rate cut led to a limited rebound in Bitcoin. I mentioned in the live channel that Bitcoin wouldn't break through the 95,000-96,000 range. After the favourable information settles, the market maker will continue to dump. It's hard to sustain interest rate cuts at the beginning of 2026. Yesterday, there was another wave of reaction to Japan's interest rate hike, causing the market to fall further. Personally, I think today's A-shares are performing well, with most stocks rising. The probability of a rate hike in Japan in December is low; the logic is simple. Since the U.S. is cutting rates in December, the dollar will depreciate, and the yen will naturally appreciate. So Japan just needs to wait for the U.S. rate cut to see the strength of the yen's rebound. If necessary, they can actively raise rates in early 2026. Today's decline in Crypto Assets further indicates that the market has shifted from divergence to a unified view of the Bear Market. With a slight unfavourable information factor, institutions and retail investors sold off together. This aligns with my judgment on November 3 that the market has entered a Bear Market cycle. Although we weren't as early as others who turned bearish above 120,000, we reacted in a timely manner. We will continue to watch the Bear Market, likely until the fourth quarter of 2026, and consider buying low again after the Fed's Powell retires next year and rates are cut alongside balance sheet expansion.