#美联储恢复降息进程 bearish traders one sentence, the global Capital Market immediately went into an uproar.

The market is betting on Kevin Hassett taking the helm of the Federal Reserve - this White House economic advisor is known for being dovish. His past comments on interest rate cuts are still fresh in memory; if he really takes office, it’s almost a certainty that borrowing costs will go down. The logic is straightforward: with cheap money, liquidity increases, and risk assets naturally rise. As you can see, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has already broken 4%, and the S&P 500 is just a step away from 7000 points.

But is this operation really that appealing?

First, let's douse some cold water. Hassett is too close to the White House; the independence of the Federal Reserve is likely to be severely compromised. In the short term, cutting interest rates is indeed pleasant—retail investors will have a longer window to buy the dip, and asset prices will also be more elastic. But what about the long term? If inflation expectations rebound, will he dare to brake under political pressure? History does not stand on this side; the lessons from the 1920s, when the German central bank was politically hijacked, resulting in hyperinflation, are not deep enough?

My advice is simple: don't just focus on short-term candy. The U.S. Treasury yield curve must be monitored at all times; once it steepens rapidly, inflation signals will appear. Keeping 20% cash on hand is not cowardice; it's buying yourself insurance. This round of interest rate cuts could be an opportunity, but it could also be a trap—when eating meat, remember to check if the plate is clean. $BTC