On December 3rd, this time Node, three noteworthy messages suddenly emerged in the market.

Let's talk about the movements from the Federal Reserve. The three-year balance sheet reduction cycle is coming to an end. What does this mean? The liquidity environment may undergo a shift. Historical experience tells us that whenever the Federal Reserve's policy shifts, the crypto market always tends to react.

Ethereum is going to upgrade again. Looking back at past records: after the Berlin upgrade, it rose by 173%, the Cancun upgrade pulled up by 100%, and that time in May this year, it directly rose by 281%. Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, but technological upgrades are indeed a necessary condition for ecological development. Layer 2 sectors have always moved along with these upgrades; will this time be an exception?

There is a new move in Hong Kong - the first Ethereum ETF is going to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the code 3085.HK. Unlike those paper ETFs in the U.S., this one is backed by physical assets and directly holds Ether. You can participate with a minimum of 850 HKD, which is not a high threshold. Once this channel is opened, there will be an additional path for traditional funds to enter the market.

Putting three things together is indeed interesting. On a macro level, liquidity may loosen; on a technical level, performance is being optimized; and on a financial level, the entrance is being widened. The question is, how will these positives reflect on the price?

Some in the market are calling for $8,500, while some institutions predict $15,000. These numbers are just for reference; the key is to look at the flow of funds and on-chain data. Will the Hong Kong ETF replicate the trend seen when the Bitcoin ETF was approved? No one can say for sure.

If you want to participate, there are several ideas to consider:
Directly configure ETH to eat the main rise;
Explore potential projects in the Layer2 ecosystem;
Enter steadily through the Hong Kong ETF channel.

But speaking of which, December 3rd is just a time point. The fluctuations before and after favorable news often tend to be the most intense, and chasing highs can easily lead to getting caught at the peak.

What do you think of this operation? Should we heavily invest in mainstream coins, diversify into ecosystem projects, or simply wait and see after the ETF is listed?

ETH0.15%

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DefiOldTrickster

· 12-01 03:51

Ha, it's that amazing time to brag again. I was indeed in that 281% wave, but I have also been trapped before, now I’ve learned to be smarter. The threshold for the Hong Kong ETF is only 850? Traditional funds are about to buy the dip, I’m familiar with this. But the real opportunity lies in those small coins in Layer 2, they only rise when ETH rises, that's my arbitrage logic. I have chased the price at the peak too many times, now I'm just waiting for the wave of pullback when the favourable information is confirmed, that’s the entry point. Liquidity shifting sounds good, but in reality, it means funds need to find new places to go, and we are that place.

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NFT_Therapy_Group

· 12-01 03:51

Ha, three pieces of favourable information hit at once, it feels like the storytelling is about to begin again. Chasing the price is often the most intense at this time, I will still wait to see the market after the Hong Kong ETF is listed.

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SigmaBrain

· 12-01 03:50

The fact that Hong Kong's ETF directly holds coins is amazing; traditional funds are finally entering without being so hesitant. --- With upgrades, balance sheet reductions, and ETFs, the rhythm... those who chase the price should be careful. --- Whether it's 8500 or 15000, it's all nonsense; the key is how much incremental capital the Hong Kong Stock Exchange can attract with this deal. --- There are indeed opportunities in the Layer2 ecosystem, but don't go all in, brother. --- To be honest, the impact of the balance sheet reduction shift on on-chain liquidity is nowhere near as immediate as the celebrities are claiming. --- The threshold of 850 Hong Kong dollars is indeed low, but it's not too late to enter when the ETF is listed; why rush now? --- I've seen the Ether upgrade too many times; every time it's hyped up, but the final rise is rarely as expected. --- I actually want to see if this ETF from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange can leverage Asian funds; it's safer than directly allocating ETH.

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NotFinancialAdvice

· 12-01 03:47

Is it really possible for traditional funds to come in once the Hong Kong ETF is launched? I'm a bit skeptical. --- It's just a pile of favourable information and historical data talking; I've seen this routine too many times. --- Whether it’s 8500 or 15000, I'm just waiting to see the real flow of funds. Don’t talk to me about technicals. --- As for those small coins in Layer 2, will they really be able to make money this time, or will they continue to be trapped? I’m not so sure. --- To be honest, after an upgrade, the most intense fluctuations are when explosions are most likely to happen. I’ll just observe for now. --- Is the end of quantitative easing = the money printer getting ready to start? This logic seems a bit jumpy to me. --- Entering at 850 HKD sounds simple, but the real question is whether the ETF listing will become another trap for suckers. --- I’m actually a bit sensitive to this timing; three things happening at once—what a coincidence in the market!

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PumpAnalyst

· 12-01 03:37

As soon as the Hong Kong ETF was listed, it directly played people for suckers. I'm too familiar with this routine. This time, we really need to be cautious; the fluctuations are the fiercest before the favourable information is realized. How did that 281% happen? Does anyone remember? It feels like every time they mention historical data but never talk about the risks. Being bearish is being bearish, but the loosening of liquidity is indeed different. Brothers, don't chase the price; this is the favorite signal of market makers, and there are traps waiting ahead. Whether it's 8500 or 15000, when discussing these numbers, remember to check if your position is enough to buy the dip. Wait, is entering a position in the ETF at 850 HKD really stable, or is it just another new trick to play suckers? Those Layer 2 projects are betting on the speculation of the secondary market; technology upgrades ≠ coin price surge, don't get confused. Better to miss out than to chase the price; aren't historical lessons enough?

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AirdropHunter9000

· 12-01 03:24

The Hong Kong ETF this time is really amazing, starting at 850 HKD directly lowering the threshold, traditional funds really need such a channel. --- Upgrading and shrinking the balance sheet, this rhythm is a bit dense, it always feels like it’s paving the way for the upcoming rise. --- Historical data looks good, but I still believe more in on-chain data; those institutions calling for 15,000 seems a bit optimistic. --- We really need to pay attention to Layer 2; when Ethereum upgrades and sets the rhythm, they usually follow closely. --- Chasing the price is momentarily satisfying, but getting trapped at the peak is a bloody lesson. --- The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's move is interesting, directly holding an ETH ETF, which is completely different from the U.S. approach that desperately wants algorithmic stablecoins. --- Honestly, I’m just waiting to see the fluctuations after December 3rd; opportunities are often hidden in panic. --- Directly allocating ETH sounds simple, but diversifying ecological project risks is actually a bit more controllable. --- Will the liquidity really loosen after the balance sheet reduction cycle ends? It feels like the Fed has been shouting "wolf" every day for the past few years. --- If it weren't for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange ETF this time, I would have been ready to calmly observe for another two weeks.

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