Next week, the crypto market may experience significant fluctuations as several major macro events are set to be released, and investors need to be particularly vigilant.

Timeline summary: On Monday, China's manufacturing PMI data will be released first, which is always regarded as a barometer for the global economy; on Tuesday, the U.S. ADP employment data (commonly known as the small non-farm) will be presented, and the market will use this to predict Friday's non-farm payrolls; on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may deliver a speech, potentially setting the tone for the December interest rate decision; and on Friday, the main event is the U.S. core PCE price index, which is the inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve. During the same period, officials from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank will also be speaking intensively, making the direction of global capital flows a focus during these days.

Don't think these are far from the crypto market. Bitcoin and Ethereum are now tightly bound to the U.S. stock market; when the S&P drops, they shudder along with it. If U.S. inflation data exceeds expectations, the market's expectation for interest rate hikes rises, putting pressure on risk assets; conversely, if Powell suddenly sends a dovish signal, the crypto market could rebound instantly. The more troubling issue is the "expectation gap" — the market originally expects interest rate hikes, but the Federal Reserve remains inactive, and this kind of reversal is most likely to trigger severe fluctuations.

China's PMI cannot be ignored either. Last time when the data was below the boom-bust line, Bitcoin retraced nearly 5% in a short period, global risk appetite contracted, and funds first withdrew from emerging markets and crypto assets for safety.

Some practical suggestions: Don't go all in on direction before important data is released, especially for contract traders, be mindful of leverage control; mark the release times of various data on your calendar in advance (remember to convert time zones); if you're not sensitive enough to macro logic, it's better to hold a light position and observe rather than blindly go heavy; there will always be opportunities in the market, but if your capital is gone, it really is gone.

Fluctuation is not scary; what is scary is rushing in without preparation.