The first day of December's market data is quite interesting— the index is testing around the 3900 point mark, while the ChiNext is being pulled up by heavyweight stocks, and the micro-cap stocks are rebounding quite happily. Many are asking: Is this opening a stable one? How should we follow the zone?

First, the conclusion: the Rebound has not reached its peak yet, but we need to keep an eye on the rotation rhythm.

**The index hasn't reached its target yet in this wave.**

The market is currently stuck at 3900 points, but the real action lies in the gap between 3912 and 3927 above. It's normal to see fluctuations before filling the gap, so there's no need to panic. Once the gap is filled? There will be selling pressure above and profit-taking below, making it highly likely to enter a consolidation phase. However, this does not mean the Rebound is over—it's just a different posture for growth.

The Growth Enterprise Market is watching the 60-day moving average. Currently, the heavyweight stocks are still in the Rebound stage, and the probability of a breakthrough is considerable. Looking upward, the 10-week moving average on the weekly chart (around 3101 points) is the tough resistance. The short-term momentum is still decent, and retail investors can wait a bit longer.

The rebound targets of major indices have not been completed, and the oscillating upward pattern remains unchanged. Although the 3900 hurdle is a bit frustrating, funds are gradually digesting. For those of us who follow the market, the window for seizing rotation opportunities is still open.

**Why is there hope for a good start in December? Four reasons**

1. **The negative news from the broker has almost been digested**
The news released over the weekend did not crash the market today; the zone was already oversold, and the expectation for a rebound has been there for a long time during this sideways movement. As a heavyweight zone, if it rises, the overall market will naturally follow. Negative news at the bottom actually presents an opportunity to buy at a discount.

2. **Hong Kong stocks and A-shares are linked**
The Hang Seng Index also rebounded today, with funds and sentiment on both sides resonating, which is a plus for the opening red.

3. **The volume signal is quite positive**
After the market opened, the trading volume increased. A look at historical data shows that when the volume in December is higher than in November, the probability of an increase that month is very high. The strong volume on the first day sets a good tone for the month, and individual stock sentiment will follow suit.

4. **Micro stocks are leading the pace**
The micro-cap stock index continues to Rebound, essentially offsetting the significant drop from the previous week. As it rises, the overall profit effect in the market will not be too poor. As long as this index maintains its Rebound, the activity level of A-shares can be sustained.

**Two directions, see how much risk you can bear**

The current market is a zone rotation, divided into two waves:

**First wave: popular high-activity zone**
New energy (lithium mines, batteries, etc.), cyclical non-ferrous metals, AI software and hardware, high dividend stocks (such as banks). These zones attract a lot of capital, and their fluctuations are intense. It is suitable for balanced allocation – when market sentiment is good, focus on technology and sectors, and when sentiment weakens, switch to dividend stocks for defense.

**Second batch: oversold low position zone**
Brokerage, consumption (food and beverage), pharmaceuticals, infrastructure and real estate. Although these traditional industries do not attract much attention, they are at a low position, and a bottom rebound trend has already emerged. The space for a significant decline is limited, making it suitable for those who do not want to gamble at high levels - the risks are controllable, and there are opportunities for rotational rebounds.

**Finally, a few words**

The probability of a good start in December is not low. The chances of rotation in the zone will persist until the index rebound target is completed. Although the index may not rise much, there is considerable room for individual stock recovery and oversold rebounds, and funds are shifting from popular zones to lower-priced zones for catch-up.

It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and follow the rotation rhythm. At the current position, it serves as both a short-term profit window and a phase where funds may be cleaning up for the spring market next year. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket; being flexible is always a good approach.