#数字资产市场观察 This morning's dumping was triggered by the news that Powell is going to resign. But upon closer inspection, it seems that the market might just be scaring itself.

The probability displayed on Polymarket is that there is only a 3% chance of Powell leaving this year. Such a small probability rumor has been turned into a black swan by leveraged positions and panic emotions. In other words, the previous surge was too sharp, with many floating profits, and it collapsed with just a slight disturbance.

Looking deeper, there hasn't really been much change in the fundamentals. The interest rate futures data from CME shows that the expectation for a rate cut in March next year is still over 80%, it's just a matter of delaying the timing. Looking at the liquidity, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the past month was 2.2 billion USD, and institutions are still buying as they should. Interestingly, after this round of sharp decline, the number of active addresses on the blockchain actually increased by 12%—those who are bottom-fishing have already started to take action.

So this wave of decline, rather than being a release of bad news, is more of a technical correction after emotional overload. A 3% chance rumor won't flip the table; with the chips held steady, the rebound may come faster than expected.

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