Will Wall Street not have a Christmas rally this year? Strategists warn that Fluctuation is coming.

Question

[Block Rhythm] Every year at this time, Wall Street is waiting for “Santa Claus” - the stable pump after Thanksgiving. December is historically one of the strongest months of the year, with small fluctuations and steady returns, almost like a free money market.

But this year? Strategists have collectively poured cold water.

The head of derivatives strategy at the Royal Bank of Canada, Amy Wu Silverman, made it clear: “Don't expect a Christmas rally; what’s coming next may be a volatility pit, or rather, be ready for a choppy rebound.” She noted that the options market has begun to feel off—bearish sentiment is clearly rising, and more and more people are frantically buying downside protection. This is not a good sign.

Omar Aguilar, CEO of Schwab Asset Management, has also noticed the undercurrents beneath the surface. His assessment on Monday was more direct: “The market is now severely differentiated, the pace of macro data release is very unstable, and sector rotation has already begun.” The data vacuum period after the government shutdown, combined with the widening performance differences across sectors, makes it difficult to expect a stable Christmas market in such an environment.

For the crypto market, a resurgence in the volatility of traditional finance usually means a rise in risk aversion. If even the “year-end benefits” of the US stock market are at risk, liquidity and sentiment in the digital asset space should also be approached with caution.

RebaseVictim · Accepted Answer

Christmas market is gone? Ha, I said something felt off this year, the Options market has already started to stir. Fluctuation is something that just comes, you can’t avoid it.

Ser_This_Is_A_Casino · Answer

Oh no, is the Christmas market doomed? Then my short positions this time are not a loss but a gain, it&#39;s rare to bet on the right direction.

GasFeeSurvivor · Answer

The Christmas market is gone, and the fluctuation has arrived... Every year at this time I want to win by doing nothing, but this year it&#39;s all traps, and I feel like I&#39;m going to be played people for suckers again.

AirdropBuffet · Answer

What the hell, is there no Christmas market this year? Then I need to adjust my Position quickly, I&#39;ve been betting on December to make money.

HypotheticalLiquidator · Answer

The bearish protection buy orders in the options market are skyrocketing, which is a signal before a chain liquidation, everyone be careful of the borrowing rate.

Christmas market? I see it as a Christmas liquidation market, the risk control threshold has long been maxed out.

With such severe market differentiation, who dares to take a full position? Just waiting to deleverage.

The volatility curve has already started to swing, and systemic risk comes just like that.

What Sister Wu didn&#39;t mention is that the options market is so volatile, the dominoes are about to fall.

Every year waiting for Santa Claus, but what comes is the liquidation price list, a typical survivor bias.

Is the macro data rhythm unstable? That means the market maker is whipsawing, stirring the warehouse for a wave.

When the borrowing rate is surging, I already know what to do next, short positions carnival.