On-chain prediction market hot discussion: Hasset's odds of winning the Fed chairmanship soar to 78%

ForkMonger

2025-12-01 04:22:15

The prediction market has been quite lively lately. The odds of White House National Economic Council Director Hassett running for Fed Chair have skyrocketed from 55% to 78% this week — at least that's what the data on the Kalshi platform shows.

On the other side at Polymarket, Hassett's win rate has risen to 71%, leaving other candidates far behind. Given this momentum, it seems the market has already placed its bets.

This on-chain prediction data is sometimes more sensitive than traditional polls. After all, with real money at stake, participants will be more cautious in evaluating various information. That said, predictions are just predictions; the final outcome still depends on the decisions made over at the White House.

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tx_or_didn't_happen

· 12-01 04:52

78%? This rise is really intense, feels like someone is leading the rhythm in there. Kalshi and Poly's data is clashing so fiercely, whose bet is more reliable? Talking with real money is indeed powerful, but I still don't quite believe this stuff can predict politics. A single word from the White House could overturn everything, and that’s the thrill of this prediction market. Wait, it rose by 23 points this week? Is there really that much new information or is it just pure speculation? There must be quite a bit of human money going in, 78% is already a pretty confident level. On-chain data transparency is a good thing, but unfortunately, no one can accurately predict politics.

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GateUser-7b078580

· 12-01 04:49

The data has indeed moved, but the differences between the two platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are quite interesting—78% versus 71%. Who can guarantee which one is more accurate? Although it sounds sensitive to bet real money, in reality, it's just like that; it can still crash at historical lows. Let's wait and see, a single statement from the White House could cause everything to collapse.

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StakeWhisperer

· 12-01 04:35

78% This number is a bit precarious, it feels like someone is dumping. That said, betting real money is indeed more reliable than polls, but don't take this on-chain stuff too seriously, it's easy to get played by Large Investors. Hassett's rise this time is a bit rapid, I always feel there's a story behind it. The prediction market is always a gambler's paradise, I prefer to watch the changes quietly. The data from Kalshi and Polymarket is so different, who is telling the truth? This is why I never go all in on the Fed chair election, the risk is too high, brother.

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SneakyFlashloan

· 12-01 04:35

Is 78% real? This rise is a bit fierce... It feels like the money on-chain is all betting on Hasset? The two platforms are synchronously pumping; it can't be a coincidence, there must be some information spread I haven't caught onto. That's the good thing about the prediction market—it's much more honest with real money than blowing hot air in polls. But then again, those people in the White House can change their minds at any time; it's all just empty talk. If this wave crashes, how many people will suffer losses...

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