Goldman's latest report shows that the Fed's probability of a rate cut in December is as high as 85%, and the market has already priced in a rate cut expectation of 21 basis points. But is this seemingly favourable information really worth a mindless rush for encryption investors? Let's calmly analyze the logic behind it.

What is hidden behind the signal of interest rate cuts?

Goldman's reason for the rate cut is "weak labor market"—this wording actually suggests that the U.S. economy is facing downward pressure. The Fed's decision to cut rates at this point seems more like a preemptive response to the risk of economic recession rather than a proactive easing. Historical experience tells us that when the Fed suddenly turns dovish, it often means that traditional markets are facing issues they must confront.

Funds may indeed flow into the encryption market as a hedge, but this liquidity release is accompanied by greater uncertainty. The recent accumulation behavior of ETH whales may be a preemptive layout of institutional funds before turmoil in the traditional market.

Retail investors are always the last group of people to know.

The market began pricing in this interest rate cut long before the quiet period. Williams' dovish remarks and the changes in CME interest rate futures—these signals have already been captured by professional players. By the time the news is overwhelming and social media starts to celebrate, smart money may have already completed its positioning or even begun to take profits in batches.

This is not a conspiracy theory, but rather a fundamental law of market operation: information asymmetry always exists, the question is at which level of the food chain you are situated.

Rational response is the way to survive.

In a rate-cutting environment, the volatility of the encryption market will further amplify. This is both an opportunity and a trap. Instead of being swept away by emotions to chase rising prices and sell on dips, it is better to establish your own trading discipline:

First, control your position size. Don't go all in just because of a rate cut expectation; leave enough cash to deal with potential black swan events later.

Secondly, pay attention to the Fed's subsequent statements. The dot plot from the December interest rate meeting and Powell's press conference remarks are the key signals that will truly influence the market's medium-term direction.

Finally, treat each market fluctuation as a stress test. Check whether your strategy can still be executed under extreme market conditions; this is more important than short-term gains and losses.

ETH whales increase their holdings during market panic, while retail investors charge in during market euphoria—this contrast repeats itself every time. Which side you want to stand on depends on whether you can overcome the weaknesses of human nature.

The market always rewards those who can stay alert. Lowering interest rates is just the beginning of this game; the real test is yet to come.