Today I saw a CEO of a certain encryption data analysis agency throw out a bombshell opinion that completely stunned me.

Didn't the Federal Reserve say they would stop tapering on December 1st? Everyone thought liquidity was going to come back. But then they poured cold water on it: don't celebrate too early, do you really want to see the balance sheet repaired? It won't be until early 2026.

How is this logic derived? Digging up the old ledger from 2019—on August 1st of that year, it was officially announced that quantitative tightening would end, but due to the settlement of maturing government bonds, it was delayed until mid-month, and the balance sheet stubbornly fell for another half month. Does this script look familiar now? Stopping on December 1st, but the actual operation drags on until mid-month to wrap up, followed by a long repair cycle.

To put it simply, there are three heart-wrenching facts:
Ending the tightening does not mean immediately easing.
The balance sheet requires a process to go from shrinkage to expansion.
Does the market want to drink real liquidity? Just wait it out.

I thought the cold winter was almost over, but it might still be quite a while before it warms up. That said, after the balance sheet bottomed out in 2019, the market started to warm up not long after. Will there be an anticipated reaction this time?

Do you think this judgment for 2026 is reliable? Or will traders price in their expectations ahead of time?

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DegenDreamer

· 13h ago

It's the same old latency theory again, they really want us to wait another two years, hilarious. --- 2026? Brother, your prediction is way too conservative, the market has already priced it in. --- Wait, so December isn't a turning point at all? What about my position this month... --- Does the 2019 incident have any reference value? The environment is completely different now. --- Is that it? I thought there would be some strong logic behind it, but it boils down to "wait a bit longer". --- Entering it into the price? Ha, traders don't react that quickly, the speculative hype has already started. --- If the balance sheet repair is going to take until 2026, should I hodl now or close all positions? Can I get a clear signal? --- No, the logic of history repeating itself is fundamentally flawed, the macro environment is not comparable at all. --- Liquidity is just a way for the officials to buy time, why beat around the bush? --- If you ask me, traders have already absorbed the expectation that 2026 will be the bottom, it's too late to ask now.

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DaisyUnicorn

· 13h ago

Oh no, it's this "armchair strategizing" game again... 2026, my unicorn horn is going to grow crooked. It sounds reasonable, but the traders have already caught the scent, will the price really wait until 2026? It's like growing flowers; the buds may not have bloomed yet, but the roots are desperately soaking up water.

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GasWaster69

· 13h ago

Oh no, it’s this trap again, I’m afraid I won’t make it to 2026.

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ChainSpy

· 13h ago

I’m afraid I’ll be trapped again, it’ll be hilarious in 2026, whether I’ll still be around by then is up for debate.

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