Bull vs Bear Battle at the Crossroads: Depth Analysis of Bitcoin Trends

The cryptocurrency market in November 2025 can be described as a "cold wave" without exaggeration.

The monthly trading volume of centralized exchanges has significantly shrunk by 26.7% to $1.59 trillion, marking the lowest level since June; the price of Bitcoin has also fluctuated downward from the high of $110,000 at the beginning of the month, and has even fallen below the $90,000 mark.

At the same time, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF, which has been a significant engine of this year's bull market, saw the largest single-month net outflow since February, reaching as high as $3.48 billion. The market is at a crossroads of deep adjustment, and the upcoming trend of Bitcoin represents a critical battle between the bull vs bear forces amid macro pressures, on-chain signals, and technical structures.

1. Core driving force of a weak market: Capital retreat under threefold pressure

This round of adjustment is not caused by a single factor, but rather a concentrated manifestation of multiple pressures, forming a negative feedback loop.
First of all, the "flight to safety" in the macro environment is the fundamental background. The global market is reassessing the Federal Reserve's rate cut path and the sustainability of the tech stock bull market, prompting funds to withdraw from risk assets. The correlation between Bitcoin and "risk-on" tech stocks makes it the first to be affected in this round of adjustment.
Secondly, the "ability to attract funds" of core funding channels has weakened, directly impacting the demand side. Continuous capital outflows from ETFs, especially the massive redemptions of leading products like BlackRock, indicate that the institutional buying power supporting price increases since the beginning of the year is diminishing. Although some analysts believe this may be a short-term behavior due to profit-taking and leverage strategy adjustments, the impact on market sentiment is significant. At the same time, the crypto asset treasury (DAT), represented by Strategy, has also slowed its accumulation pace due to asset shrinkage.
Finally, the "liquidity shrinkage" within the market has amplified the volatility. The "flash crash" in October liquidated a large amount of leverage, and its subsequent effect has been the continued sluggishness of liquidity in the spot market. The order book depth of mainstream coins has decreased by 30%-40% compared to early October, which makes the market exceptionally fragile, where small trades can trigger severe price fluctuations.

2. Bearish Logic: Depth Warning from Technical Structure and On-Chain Indicators

The current bearish perspective is based on serious technical analysis and historical on-chain data, pointing to a potential deeper retracement.

On the technical front, Bitcoin is facing a test of key support levels. Analysts point out that the price is currently hovering around the short-term support area of approximately $90,300 to $90,500. If it breaks below this level, it could further decline to $88,000 or even $82,000. More alarmingly, according to Elliott Wave Theory, Bitcoin may be in the 4th wave adjustment phase of a larger upward cycle.

Historical data shows that such adjustments typically retrace 23.6% to 38.2% of the previous major upward wave (Wave 3). If this structure holds, the retracement target area could be between $80,000 and $69,000.
What is even more striking is the depth warning from on-chain data. The "Cumulative Value Days Destroyed" (CVDD) indicator—a tool that assesses market cycles by measuring the movement of "dormant" Bit value—currently suggests that Bitcoin may head towards a deep bottom of around $45,880. This indicator has accurately corresponded to historical lows of $3,200 in 2018 and $16,000 in 2022.

Although this signal is probabilistic, its historical correlation provides a framework for the possibility of a Depth pullback. In addition, the realized losses of short-term holders (holding period < 155 days) have reached approximately -23%, indicating strong "surrender selling" pressure.

3. Bullish Support: Short-term Repair and Long-term Structural Optimization

Despite the heavy pressure, the market is not without glimmers of hope. A series of short-term positive signals and long-term structural optimizations lay the foundation for a potential rebound.

Short-term prices have shown resilience. Bitcoin successfully converted the $90,000 level into a support during Thanksgiving and once rebounded to around $92,000. Analysts are once again focusing on the annual opening price resistance at $93,000, believing that if it breaks through, the target of returning to $100,000 will become clear again. More subtle positive changes are coming from the market microstructure. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) in the spot market is returning from negative to neutral, indicating that the buying power in the spot market is recovering.

At the same time, as the price returns above $90,000, a large number of BlackRock ETF investors' positions have also returned above the breakeven point, which may alleviate the passive selling pressure caused by paper losses.

More importantly, the market's "leverage washout" is nearing completion, clearing the obstacles for a healthier rise. The open interest in the perpetual futures market has remained low after the sharp decline in October, and the funding rate has returned to neutral, indicating that excessive speculative leverage has been squeezed out. The total borrowing amount in the DeFi lending market has also significantly decreased, reducing systemic risk. A "cleaner" market position structure provides a more solid foundation for the subsequent rise driven by fundamentals.

IV. Outlook and Key Battlegrounds: Fragile Balance and Stalemate to Break

Overall, Bitcoin is in a fragile window of subtle balance between Bull vs Bear Battle. The data from the prediction market also reflects this uncertainty: according to Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of the year is 50%, while the probability of it falling below $80,000 again is also 37%. Data from another prediction platform, Kalshi, indicates that traders' expectations for a return to $100,000 by the end of the year are declining.
To break the current stalemate and establish a clear trend, the market needs to pay attention to the evolution of the following key battle points:

1. Reversal signal of capital flow: Whether Bitcoin ETF can end the net outflow and restore stable net inflow of funds is the most intuitive signal of market sentiment turning. Any sustained, large-scale inflow of funds will become a strong catalyst.
2. The battle for key price levels: $90,000 has become a short-term bull vs bear battle. If an effective breakthrough at the daily level can be achieved, it will greatly boost the confidence of bulls and challenge the psychological level of $100,000. Conversely, if the support at $90,000 is ultimately lost, it may trigger a new round of selling, testing lower support areas.
3. Macroeconomic and policy trends: The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy path, the strength of the US dollar index, and the global regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies (such as the progress of the Digital Asset Market Clear Act) will continue to profoundly influence market risk appetite and capital allocation decisions from external factors.

In summary, Bitcoin is currently in a critical consolidation and directional selection period after experiencing a deep adjustment in November. While the market is enduring macro headwinds and capital outflow pressure, it has also achieved internal structural purification through a painful deleveraging process. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate within the range of $85,000 to $90,000 to build up energy.

The final direction choice will depend on the victory or defeat of the key battle points mentioned above. For investors, during such a period of contradictory signals and potential increased volatility, remaining vigilant, paying attention to data, and managing risks may be a more prudent strategy than making a one-sided bet. #十二月行情展望