These past few days, my frens have been spreading the news that "the Fed's QT is about to end, and the December market is stable."

So what happened next? BTC directly broke 87,000, with a total of 140 billion dollars exploded across the network in 24 hours.

The market has given everyone the most vivid lesson: the stories you hear and what actually happens are not the same at all.

Looking at the data, the average increase of BTC in December over the past ten years has indeed been 40%, which is why every year at this time there are people shouting "end-of-year sprint." However, on the first day of December this year, the market told you with a crash - history may rhyme, but it will never copy the script.

Everyone is betting on the same logic: "Liquidity injection → Capital inflow → Coin price skyrockets."

But where is the problem? The speed of liquidity release simply cannot keep up with the speed of the panic sell-off.

Let's take a look at these numbers:
• Today, 15 tokens are collectively unlocking $68 million, directly flooding the market.
• Institutional analysts are still drawing a $200,000 pie, while large on-chain addresses continue to reduce their holdings.
• Although the ETF is still buying, the pace has clearly slowed down.

When everyone is waiting for favorable policy news, the real danger is that the "good news" you thought was coming has already been digested by the market.

For those still stubbornly insisting on a "December must rise", I suggest you take a look back at what has happened in December over the past three years:

• December 2024: It did rise, but that was due to the super expectations brought about by Trump's election.
• December 2023: It was a calm month, with no waves at all.
• December 2022: The aftershocks of the FTX explosion are still ongoing, continuing to decline.

What is meant by "historical average of 40%"? That is calculated by mixing data from bull and bear markets. In the current environment of high leverage, high selling pressure, and widespread risks, the relevance of historical experience is basically zero.

My opinion is very simple:
In the short term, there is a high probability of continued fluctuations or even a downturn. The real opportunities will only appear after the market has completely cleared the leverage and the panic emotions have been fully released.

It's not that it won't rise, but those who are eager to buy at the bottom right now may very well become the next round of bag holders during the decline.

Do you think it can reach 100,000 again in December? Let's discuss in the comments.