#数字资产市场观察 This wave of sell with bearish market on Monday came quite fiercely, with both the weekly and monthly charts collapsing together. The sentiment that was built up over the past ten days was directly shattered in the morning.

This is not a sudden event; it is mainly due to the hawkish stance of the central bank in Japan, and the old problem of liquidity has resurfaced. Coupled with the end-of-month contract settlements piling up, the market depth was already insufficient, and a single sell-off broke through it.

There is basically no expectation of interest rate cuts between now and February next year, and the overall environment is definitely bearish. If Japan really dares to raise interest rates, that could be another story.

The rebound I mentioned before is almost over, and it indeed has come true. I estimate there will be another round of downward probing around December 4th; this morning's wave may just be a preview.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has already broken 86700, and we are now watching the 85300 level below. If it goes lower, we will need to look at the range between 82000 and 80000, and even lower is not out of the question. The hard support at the weekly level is at 74600, and this point will have to be tested repeatedly sooner or later.

The key now is whether 2800 can be held; if it breaks, it will head straight for 2620. If you want to play for a short-term rebound, you can pay attention around 2720, but be sure to set a tight stop-loss. If you're really looking to catch the bottom, 2620 might be more suitable, with a defense set at 2500; if that breaks, then watch around 2110.