BTC Rebound Relies on External Support: Weak Funding, Defensive Options, Strategy Becomes a Key Variable

[Bit推] The recent small rebound of Bitcoin is more about benefiting from the improvement in external risk appetite, and there hasn't been much of a stir within the chain itself. The stock market has also risen a bit, and the market currently estimates the probability of a rate cut in December to be around 85%.

But the problem still remains: the inflation data is very hard, while the employment data is quite weak. Federal Reserve officials have given some dovish signals, but the impact is actually quite limited. This week, we need to pay close attention to the unemployment benefit data and the ADP employment report. In addition, the credit spreads and CDS related to AI have been rising, indicating that funds are re-evaluating whether the trading logic that was so hot over the past year is still reliable.

The funding situation is quite weak. Crypto ETFs continue to bleed, with multiple products undergoing net liquidation, and some units have even fallen below $1 in net value, leading to a clear sense of risk aversion. Strategy has again been pushed to the forefront — Bitcoin reserves are nearing the breakeven line, and the stock price has been put on MSCI's delisting watch list, potentially becoming a key variable in the market before the end of the year. Now BTC's trend is increasingly resembling that of AI tech stocks, and the fear and greed index has also receded, making short-term sentiment recovery quite challenging.

On the options side, the demand for put protection is still strong. Although the open interest is leaning bullish, both implied volatility and positions are contracting, and everyone is starting to operate with light positions. If it rebounds to around $95,000, it may encounter selling pressure from ETF redemptions, and it is likely to remain in a range-bound fluctuation. The main support zone is between $80,000 and $82,000, and if it truly breaks below that, it may trigger systemic stop-loss liquidity.

Michael Saylor has released BTC Tracker again. Looking back at the history, it can be found that the Strategy usually announces an increase in holdings the day after a signal is issued, which has become their fixed routine: first hinting, then announcing the purchase, continually shaping the narrative of bullish expectations and funds entering the market.

Overall, the short-term BTC trend is still being pulled by macro expectations, capital inflows and outflows, and the options structure. The rebound is more driven by external risk appetite rather than improvements in on-chain fundamentals. The bottom still needs confirmation from capital, and the sentiment's recovery depends on the ETF flows and how Strategy moves next. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data and the performance of spot liquidity.