#ETH巨鲸增持 The Fed has really gone big this time - the tapering policy has hit the brakes! Is this a blessing or a curse for the crypto market?

Starting from December 1, 2025, the Fed's three-year balance sheet reduction game will officially be called off. The global pool of funds will undergo a transformation, and the crypto market will certainly not be able to escape.

Why did you suddenly stop playing?

In simple terms, the Fed has been pushed into a corner. Employment data is starting to falter, and the reserves held by banks are down to $2.8 trillion—this is a warning line. The cost of funds in the money market is soaring, and if it continues to shrink, it could lead to major issues. To make matters worse, U.S. national debt has piled up to an astronomical figure of $38 trillion. If the Fed continues to sell bonds, the cost of borrowing for the government will explode. With these three mountains pressing down, even if they want to keep going, they will have to stop.

How will the market go?

What does stopping the taper mean? Each month, there will be an increase of 25 to 60 billion dollars in the liquidity of the base currency in the market. With more money, risk assets naturally benefit. Looking back at the old accounts, in the six months following the last taper stop in 2019, Bitcoin directly surged by 62.5%. History may not repeat itself, but the rhythm is often similar.

But don't celebrate too early - there's still internal debate within the Fed about whether to continue cutting interest rates in December, and with the U.S. government shutdown leading to missing economic data, the market is now like a blindfolded sprint, with expectations in disarray, and volatility may be even more intense.

Where are the opportunities in the crypto market?

Liquidity inflection points are often the spring for high-risk assets. $BTC and $ETH, these mainstream coins, are likely to take off first, and those compliant sectors, such as RWA (real world assets) or projects combining AI with blockchain, might also get a share of the funding overflow.

But there are also many pitfalls. Policies sometimes take time to take effect, and the market can easily get overly excited in advance. When speculation reaches its peak, a "realization of expectations can be bearish" occurs, and in a high-leverage environment, both longs and shorts can be wiped out in an instant.

In the long term, it is positive, but in the short term, one must be cautious of the expectation gap. Keep a close eye on whether $BTC can stabilize above the $100,000 mark; only if it breaks through with volume can we consider the trend opportunity to be solid.

What do you think? Is this wave of actions the starting gun for a bull market, or an accelerator for a bubble? Let's discuss your judgment.