The 5-day chart (weekly level) provides a decisive long-term perspective, clearly revealing the "historical Bear Market cycle" that PI/USDT is in, and fully corroborating and reinforcing the correctness and urgency of your "top-sell" strategy.
1. Interpretation of the 5-day MACD and key technical signals: Bear Market pattern confirmed
1. MACD: Weak Breaths in a Deep Bear Market · Position and Shape: Both DIF and DEA are at a very deep position below the zero axis (-0.0679, -0.0837), and the MACD histogram line shows a very small positive value (0.0158). This is not a real "golden cross" or reversal signal. · Essential Interpretation: This indicates that after a long and significant decline in the market, the downward momentum has experienced extreme exhaustion and a brief pause. The fast and slow lines are converging at a low level, resembling a technical correction after "no further decline is possible" rather than a counterattack by bullish forces. This pattern often appears in the mid to late stages of a prolonged downtrend and is a typical characteristic of "weak consolidation in a Bear Market." 2. Combine with the overall chart structure: · Price Position: The current price is 0.2308, which is in the absolute low area of the entire daily chart. It has fallen from a high of 0.38 to a low of 0.1468, and is currently in the middle to lower position of the downtrend. · Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands (BOLL) are in a state of extreme contraction after a significant expansion, with a large gap between the upper band (0.3787) and the lower band (0.1605). The price is closely adhering to the lower band, indicating that the market is in a long-term weak position, and the volatility may converge after an extreme decline, entering a period of low-level consolidation. · RSI and OBV: RSI (41.9, 38.4, 39.4) are all below the 50 midline, indicating a weak area. OBV (On-Balance Volume) shows a huge negative value, clearly indicating that long-term funds are continuously flowing out.
2. Comprehensive conclusions on macro, meso, and micro: Hierarchical suppression of trends
Combining all the cycle analyses you provided earlier, we can clearly see a complete picture:
· Macro (5-day line): Historic Bear Market, clear and deep downtrend, with no reversal structure. · Medium view (daily chart): Continuation of decline, a consolidation phase in the Bear Market trend, MACD convergence indicates a possible brewing of the next wave of decline. · Micro (1 hour and below): The rebounds and fluctuations under the control of the main force create "ripples" and "volatility" in a larger downtrend, used for high selling and low buying, attracting followers or testing chips.
Core conclusion: The fluctuations of the small cycle (ripples) can never change the trend of the large cycle (tides). All the clever operations by the main forces that you observe on the intraday chart take place on the deck of this giant ship that is "historically sinking".
3. Ultimate Strategy Recommendation: Give up illusions and execute decisively.
Based on the absolute bearish tone set by the 5-day line and the daily chart, all your operational strategies must adhere to this as the highest criterion:
1. For all long positions (regardless of short or long term): · Core Strategy: Take decisive action to exit during any rebound. Whether it's the 0.2360 we analyzed, the middle band of the daily chart Bollinger Bands at 0.2400, or any other rebound high point, these are valuable escape windows. · Psychological Preparation: Do not harbor fantasies of "breaking even before leaving" or "rebound turning into reversal." In the face of a Bear Market at the 5-day level, any luck may lead to deeper entrapment. 2. For short strategies: · Main Strategy: Patiently wait for the timing of the rebound exhaustion. Focus on the daily chart or 4-hour chart. When the price rebounds to key resistance levels (such as 0.2360, 0.2400, 0.2500) and shows signs of stagnation (such as long upper shadows, MACD divergence), it is a better position for shorting with favorable risk-reward. · Risk Control: Short position stop-loss should be set above the key resistance level (e.g., 0.2410 or 0.2510) to guard against low-probability strong rebounds. 3. For observers and potential investors: · Best Strategy: Stay on the sidelines, never attempt to catch the bottom. The true bottom is not guessed, it is walked out. You need to wait for a clear bottom divergence structure on the 5-day MACD, and then consider medium to long-term layout after the price breaks out of the long-term downtrend line with increased volume. · Current Definition: The current market is in the left side phase of "bottom searching" or "bottom building", with high volatility and risks, making it unsuitable for the vast majority of investors to participate.
Summary: Your vigilance towards the market and intuition for "topping out" have proven to be very insightful in front of the 5-day daily chart. This chart wipes away all the fog of short-term fluctuations and reveals a harsh long-term reality: PI/USDT is clearly in a deep Bear Market. The first principle of trading is to "go with the trend," and the biggest "trend" currently is downward. Please shift your analytical focus from "what tricks the main players are doing in the short term" to "how to maximize the protection of your principal during a Bear Market and seek opportunities to go with the trend."
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The 5-day chart (weekly level) provides a decisive long-term perspective, clearly revealing the "historical Bear Market cycle" that PI/USDT is in, and fully corroborating and reinforcing the correctness and urgency of your "top-sell" strategy.
1. Interpretation of the 5-day MACD and key technical signals: Bear Market pattern confirmed
1. MACD: Weak Breaths in a Deep Bear Market
· Position and Shape: Both DIF and DEA are at a very deep position below the zero axis (-0.0679, -0.0837), and the MACD histogram line shows a very small positive value (0.0158). This is not a real "golden cross" or reversal signal.
· Essential Interpretation: This indicates that after a long and significant decline in the market, the downward momentum has experienced extreme exhaustion and a brief pause. The fast and slow lines are converging at a low level, resembling a technical correction after "no further decline is possible" rather than a counterattack by bullish forces. This pattern often appears in the mid to late stages of a prolonged downtrend and is a typical characteristic of "weak consolidation in a Bear Market."
2. Combine with the overall chart structure:
· Price Position: The current price is 0.2308, which is in the absolute low area of the entire daily chart. It has fallen from a high of 0.38 to a low of 0.1468, and is currently in the middle to lower position of the downtrend.
· Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands (BOLL) are in a state of extreme contraction after a significant expansion, with a large gap between the upper band (0.3787) and the lower band (0.1605). The price is closely adhering to the lower band, indicating that the market is in a long-term weak position, and the volatility may converge after an extreme decline, entering a period of low-level consolidation.
· RSI and OBV: RSI (41.9, 38.4, 39.4) are all below the 50 midline, indicating a weak area. OBV (On-Balance Volume) shows a huge negative value, clearly indicating that long-term funds are continuously flowing out.
2. Comprehensive conclusions on macro, meso, and micro: Hierarchical suppression of trends
Combining all the cycle analyses you provided earlier, we can clearly see a complete picture:
· Macro (5-day line): Historic Bear Market, clear and deep downtrend, with no reversal structure.
· Medium view (daily chart): Continuation of decline, a consolidation phase in the Bear Market trend, MACD convergence indicates a possible brewing of the next wave of decline.
· Micro (1 hour and below): The rebounds and fluctuations under the control of the main force create "ripples" and "volatility" in a larger downtrend, used for high selling and low buying, attracting followers or testing chips.
Core conclusion: The fluctuations of the small cycle (ripples) can never change the trend of the large cycle (tides). All the clever operations by the main forces that you observe on the intraday chart take place on the deck of this giant ship that is "historically sinking".
3. Ultimate Strategy Recommendation: Give up illusions and execute decisively.
Based on the absolute bearish tone set by the 5-day line and the daily chart, all your operational strategies must adhere to this as the highest criterion:
1. For all long positions (regardless of short or long term):
· Core Strategy: Take decisive action to exit during any rebound. Whether it's the 0.2360 we analyzed, the middle band of the daily chart Bollinger Bands at 0.2400, or any other rebound high point, these are valuable escape windows.
· Psychological Preparation: Do not harbor fantasies of "breaking even before leaving" or "rebound turning into reversal." In the face of a Bear Market at the 5-day level, any luck may lead to deeper entrapment.
2. For short strategies:
· Main Strategy: Patiently wait for the timing of the rebound exhaustion. Focus on the daily chart or 4-hour chart. When the price rebounds to key resistance levels (such as 0.2360, 0.2400, 0.2500) and shows signs of stagnation (such as long upper shadows, MACD divergence), it is a better position for shorting with favorable risk-reward.
· Risk Control: Short position stop-loss should be set above the key resistance level (e.g., 0.2410 or 0.2510) to guard against low-probability strong rebounds.
3. For observers and potential investors:
· Best Strategy: Stay on the sidelines, never attempt to catch the bottom. The true bottom is not guessed, it is walked out. You need to wait for a clear bottom divergence structure on the 5-day MACD, and then consider medium to long-term layout after the price breaks out of the long-term downtrend line with increased volume.
· Current Definition: The current market is in the left side phase of "bottom searching" or "bottom building", with high volatility and risks, making it unsuitable for the vast majority of investors to participate.
Summary:
Your vigilance towards the market and intuition for "topping out" have proven to be very insightful in front of the 5-day daily chart. This chart wipes away all the fog of short-term fluctuations and reveals a harsh long-term reality: PI/USDT is clearly in a deep Bear Market. The first principle of trading is to "go with the trend," and the biggest "trend" currently is downward. Please shift your analytical focus from "what tricks the main players are doing in the short term" to "how to maximize the protection of your principal during a Bear Market and seek opportunities to go with the trend."