The Fed's sudden meeting has really thrown a deep-water bomb—once the news broke that Powell might step down and Harker could take over, all kinds of funds went into a frenzy. Logically, having a more aggressive rate-cutting faction take office should be seen as Favourable Information, yet the market is actually getting extremely tense, which is a bit counterintuitive.

Let’s first talk about this possible new leader: Hasit has been working with the old boss for nearly ten years, and he was the one who led the tax reduction policy back then, definitely a core think tank. He has long disapproved of the current "slow interest rate cut" strategy and has publicly criticized it many times, claiming the policy is too conservative and holding back progress. He believes that the interest rate should be directly cut to 3% to be reasonable, and he even made a strong statement — "If I were in that position, I would cut it immediately."

The current situation is indeed quite awkward: the US GDP is already showing positive growth, employment data is also weakening, but inflation is stubbornly not coming down. The internal conflict between hawks and doves in the Fed is at a boiling point, and the pace of interest rate cuts is completely uncertain; this unresolved state is a ticking time bomb. If Hasset really takes office, "radical easing" will basically be a done deal—just look at the 10-year Treasury yield, it has jumped ahead, breaking 4% and hitting a new low.

But the question arises: why is the market still panicking? To put it bluntly, it's afraid of "a sudden brake followed by a rapid acceleration" in policy. Hasit has too close a relationship with the White House, and everyone is worried that the independence of the central bank will be diluted. If monetary policy turns into a political bargaining chip, it might boost the economy in the short term, but in the long term, it could lead to bigger problems—risks like inflation rising again and the overextension of the dollar's credibility are all there. Moreover, the Fed...