SPY seems to be about to test the 50-day moving average, what does this mean? BTC is likely to test the recent low as well.

However, this backtest might actually be a good thing, provided that two conditions are met:

1) The geopolitical situation should not escalate suddenly.
2) The Federal Reserve really lowered interest rates at the beginning of December.

Looking back at history, the last two significant market corrections occurred in - the first quarter of 2022, which was caused by the outbreak of war.

Both technical and fundamental analysis point in the same direction, and the next few weeks will be crucial.

BTC6.89%

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0xLostKey

· 6h ago

Wait, will the Fed really cut interest rates in December? Why do I feel like this is very uncertain...

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SudoRm-RfWallet/

· 13h ago

The interest rate cuts must be real; these two conditions cannot be lacking, otherwise there will really be a pullback.

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LiquidityNinja

· 12-01 08:00

Well, this backtest really feels like it's all about what the Fed does; whether they lower interest rates is truly a matter of life and death.

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FloorSweeper

· 12-01 07:52

honestly paper hands gonna get liquidated before we even touch that 50ma, they're too busy watching 4h charts lol. fed pivot is priced in already imo, real question is whether geopolitical shit actually goes sideways or if it's just noise. history rhymes but never repeats exact same way, 2022 was different animal entirely. accumulation phase hits different when retail capitulates first

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