#ETH走势分析 Afternoon market data observation: $BTC and $ETH weakness verification

Good afternoon everyone! Let's get to the conclusion first — this pullback actually had signs early on.

Do you remember what it was like on November 24th? At that time, BTC kept testing around 93000, and every time it surged, it seemed weak. It was the moment to be alert: the bulls couldn't organize a decent counterattack, and the price was dragging at high levels, which usually doesn't lead to good results. Sure enough, it began to loosen from above 91000, sliding all the way down to around 85500 before stabilizing. The whole process was a textbook example of a top divergence trend—technical indicators had already issued warnings, and key support levels broke easily, with bears taking over market data being a done deal.

**The Triple Pressure Behind This Round of Decline**

The macro environment is first throwing cold water on things. The recent statements from the Federal Reserve have been hawkish, and the market's fantasies about interest rate cuts have basically been shattered. Global risk assets are being hit hard, and the crypto market naturally cannot escape. Looking at the on-site situation, liquidity is clearly tightening, with large funds on the sidelines watching. Retail investors wanting to push the market? They simply don't have the purchasing power. The technical side is even more straightforward—93080 is a barrier that cannot be crossed. The longer the consolidation lasts, the more evident the weakness becomes. Once the psychological level of 90000 is directly smashed through by a bearish candle, the downward channel is considered completely opened.

The current situation is very clear: the rebound strength is exhausted, and the resistance level is pressing down hard. After breaking through, the downward trend accelerates. At this time, following the trend is much more reliable than blindly guessing the top and bottom.

**How to cope next?**

The core idea is still to follow the trend. Don't rush to bottom fish, and I also don't recommend blindly shorting. Only take action when the market gives you the opportunity; having a sense of rhythm is more important than being bold.

Specific reference location:
$BTC can focus on the range of 86800-87600. If it rebounds to the right level, the target for short positions is 85600-84600;
For $ETH, 2850-2900 is an observation window, while 2800-2750 can be used as a target reference.

At this stage, staying clear-headed is more crucial than holding a position. The market won't give you the bottom just because you want to catch it; you have to wait when it's time to wait.