#数字资产市场观察 $ETH $ZEC $BTC

Sudden brake - this time the Federal Reserve's action is quite interesting.

Starting from December 1st, the Federal Reserve pressed the pause button on its balance sheet reduction. From a massive balance sheet nearing $9 trillion, it has been reduced to $6.6 trillion, and now it has suddenly stopped. Many people in the market have yet to react; what exactly does this operation mean?

To be honest, the timing is quite delicate.

Inflation data? It still hovers around 3%. Economic growth rate? It has clearly started to weaken. The job market is no longer as tight as it used to be. The Federal Reserve's maneuver seems more like walking a tightrope — tightening further for fear of stalling the economy, but not tightening due to concerns about a resurgence of inflation. In a difficult situation, pausing to observe can also be considered a strategy.

But there is a more hidden logic within this: the pressure on the fiscal side.

During the years of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve was buying bonds like crazy, essentially helping the government cover its deficits. If they continue to offload bonds now, interest rates on government debt will rise, and the cost of borrowing for the government will soar. Pausing the balance sheet reduction also gives some breathing room to the fiscal side to some extent. Monetary and fiscal policy have always been two sides of the same coin.

What about the market? In the short term, it is definitely a positive signal.

The situation of tight liquidity may ease somewhat, and risk assets might experience a wave of recovery. However, don’t celebrate too early—balance sheets are still nearly 2 trillion dollars higher than before the pandemic, and the money in the market hasn’t decreased significantly. In this state, asset prices are prone to polarization: the strong get stronger, and the weak get weaker.

Another detail worth noting is that the economic data for the United States in October has been delayed for various reasons, and it coincides with a policy shift period. The combination of an information vacuum and directional adjustment can easily disrupt market sentiment. The recent fluctuations in the cryptocurrency and stock markets are largely related to this issue.

So what does this step actually mean?

My understanding is that the Federal Reserve has sensed the signs of an economic downturn and has made preparations in advance. As for whether the next round of easing will really come, it will depend on the data performance in the coming months. But at least the current stance is no longer the previous hardline approach of "I just want to tighten."

What do you think? Which type of asset do you think will benefit more next?