The super oil field on Sakhalin Island, which has been sanctioned for three years, has recently started making moves again.

Let’s start with the background. There is an offshore oil and gas project called Sakhalin-1 in Russia's Far East, located near the Arctic Circle, but it’s a gold mine—three main oil and gas fields, with an annual production of 220,000 barrels of oil, and natural gas is being heavily supplied to China, Japan, and South Korea. When it was put into operation in 2005, this project was one of the top global energy development cases, with total investments in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

The shareholder structure at that time was quite interesting: a certain American oil giant held 30% of the shares as the operator, a Russian oil company accounted for 20%, and energy companies from Japan and India each took 30% and 20%. Everyone worked together, and they made quite a bit of money.

Then the conflict came in 2022.

When the Western sanctions hit, that American company directly announced "force majeure" and packed up and left. The impairment loss of $4.6 billion is equivalent to wiping out all its business in Russia. The Russian government did not hold back either, issuing a decree to transfer the shares to a local company and handing over the operational rights to Rosneft. What was the result? Production plummeted by 40%, falling from 11.3 million tons per year to 6.9 million tons per year, directly slashing Russia's energy exports.

The story should have ended here, but there was a sudden change in tone starting from 2025.

Last August to September, Neil Chapman, the senior vice president of a certain oil company, went to Doha, Qatar, to secretly meet with Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft (Putin's former secretary). The two signed a "non-binding agreement," which basically means they started to probe — could they cooperate again?

This is not just a simple business transaction. Putin signed a decree on August 15, clearly allowing foreign investors to reclaim their shares, but with conditions: you have to sign a equipment supply contract and transfer the money. The timing is spot on, just in time for a certain Alaska summit; although the summit didn't seem to have any breakthroughs on the surface, energy cooperation is clearly advancing behind the scenes.

The logic of this matter is actually not complicated - exchanging business for peace.

Russia now needs Western technology to bring production back (currently only recovering to 198,000 barrels per day, still below pre-war levels), and that American company needs to secure long-term energy supply and profits. The two sides hit it off, as for Ukraine caught in the middle? That has become a bargaining chip at the negotiation table. Some media directly call this "bribing the U.S. with energy projects," allowing the U.S. to tacitly approve certain territorial statuses.

But there are also many troubles.

Sanctions have not been fully lifted yet; it requires the approval of the U.S. Congress and coordination with the EU folks. European countries are already furious, feeling that this is a "betrayal of allies," and environmental organizations have also come out saying the project threatens the western gray whale (only 130 are left globally). Although the CEO of that company verbally says "support Ukraine," with business opportunities right in front of them, everyone knows which way the scales tip.

If the negotiations really succeed, the impact could be significant. Russia could break free from sanctions and isolation, American companies would fill the gap in Europe, and Asian buyers would continue to secure stable supplies. But for Ukraine, this could be a living example of "exchanging territory for commercial benefits," and the rifts among allies will only widen.

Negotiations are still ongoing and have not been finalized yet. In the coming months, just keep an eye on the follow-up actions from Alaska. The game in the energy market is never just about supply and demand; it involves a contest of real money and political calculations behind the scenes.

If this operation succeeds, the global energy landscape will be reshuffled.