Today's fall really caught a lot of people off guard.

Let's first sort out the logic behind this recent fall. On the surface, it seems to be two events overlapping - suddenly, there were signals from Japan's central bank about interest rate hikes, causing the Nikkei 225 index to drop directly by 2%. The market was originally waiting for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but Japan's reverse operation directly doused the market with a bucket of cold water.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve officially announced today that it will pause its balance sheet reduction. This was actually warned about by someone yesterday, which is a typical case of good news being fully priced in. Looking solely at the Federal Reserve's announcement, BTC should normally find support around 89,000 during its correction, but it couldn't withstand the combined impact from Japan, so the decline was much deeper than expected.

But to be honest, I'm not too panicked right now. From a technical perspective, BTC has historically stabilized multiple times at the 85,500 position, and the short-term support is relatively solid. On the ETH side, the 2,800 area is also an old platform. If you're bold enough, buying the dip now to bet on a rebound isn't out of the question— even if the overall trend hasn't reversed, the probability of a technical rebound of 2,000 points is still quite high. Of course, if you really want to position for a medium to long-term short, it's still safer to wait until a few days before the interest rate cut to sell at a high.

ZEC is even more interesting. It was continuously bearish for several weeks by some analysts, and this time it has directly responded by falling. Now it's not far from the short-term target of 330; it's not meaningful to short at this position, and it would be better to wait for a decent rebound before considering entering. To put it bluntly, this coin has been inflated since it rose from over 50, and it's reasonable for it to drop back now.

The biggest test during a bear market is patience. It's normal for retail investors to be reluctant to cut losses, but the market will teach everyone what "value return" means over time. If you shorted ZEC before, you should have made a decent profit this time—congratulations to those who persevered.