$PI

1. Technical Point Analysis

Current Price: ≈ 0.2291 USDT (24h Change -6.79%)

Key support and resistance levels:

· Support level:
· 0.2270 (recent lower Bollinger Band, previous low)
· 0.2200 (psychological level, concentrated area of buy orders in the order book)
· 0.2100 (early Bollinger Band lower band, strong support)
· Resistance level:
· 0.2366 (recent Bollinger Band middle line)
· 0.2448 (previous mid-track, recent high point)
· 0.2530–0.2630 (Bollinger Band Upper Area)

Technical Indicator Signal:

· BOLL (Bollinger Bands): The price has reached or fallen below the middle band, and the lower band is opening downwards, indicating a bearish trend.
· MACD: The multi-timeframe shows that DIF and DEA are below the zero line with a death cross, and the MACD histogram is negative, indicating increased bearish momentum.
· RSI: The 6-period RSI has entered the oversold zone (24.73–36.09), indicating a potential short-term rebound demand, but overall it remains weak.
· OBV (On-Balance Volume): Most periods of OBV are below MAOBV, indicating capital outflow and sustained selling pressure.
· Trading Volume: Recent trading volume has shrunk (Vol between 600,000 and 20 million), and market activity has decreased.

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2. Position Management Recommendations

Current market status: oscillating slightly bearish, with a possibility of a short-term oversold rebound, but the overall trend has not yet reversed.

Suggested Strategy:

· Short-term traders: You can take a light long position in the 0.2270–0.2200 range, set the stop loss at 0.2150, and aim for a target of 0.2360–0.2400.
· Medium-term holders: If you already hold a long position, it is recommended to reduce your position or exit between 0.2360 and 0.2400; short positions can continue to be held with a stop loss set at 0.2450.
· Position Control: The total position is recommended not to exceed 10%–15%, to avoid heavy trading when the trend is unclear.

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3. Analysis of Market Participants' Behavior

1. Main force (large players) thoughts

· Long/Short Ratio of Accounts: The long/short ratio of large accounts shows that shorts are dominant (the proportion of accounts with no positions is high).
· Long and short position ratio: The positions of large holders are also skewed towards short, indicating that the main capital is bearish and has already positioned itself.
· Intent speculation: The main force may gradually build short positions in the 0.2300–0.2400 range, targeting below 0.2200.

2. Speculative funds (short-term capital) ideas

· Trading Volume and Open Interest: Recent open interest has decreased, and trading volume has shrunk, indicating that speculative funds may be withdrawing or observing.
· Funding Rate: The funding rate is negative (-0.001% to -0.029%), indicating that short positions need to pay long positions, and speculators may tend to go long in the short term (arbitrage).
· Intent speculation: Speculative capital may attempt to bottom out around 0.2200, but with a strong awareness of stop-loss, they are likely to enter and exit quickly.

3. Market Maker Behavior

· Order Book Structure: Buy orders account for 68.04%, sell orders 31.95%, but the buy order prices are relatively low (concentrated between 0.05–0.22), while the sell order prices are relatively high (0.23–0.40).
· Intent speculation: Market makers may create liquidity between 0.22–0.23 by placing large orders to lower the price and then accumulate positions in preparation for a subsequent rebound.

4. Retail Investor Sentiment

· Long-short ratio: From the funding rate perspective, there are more retail longs (a negative rate means shorts are paying fees), but the price drop indicates that retail long positions are stuck.
· Sentiment Indicator: RSI has entered the oversold zone, retail investors may panic sell or engage in bottom-fishing behavior, which can easily lead to a "longs liquidating" situation.
· Intent inference: Retail investors are mostly chasing long positions above 0.2300, currently in a passive holding or cutting losses stage.

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IV. Comprehensive Conclusion

· Trend judgment: Short-term fluctuations lean bearish, but have entered the oversold zone, presenting opportunities for a technical rebound.
· Key Observation Points:
· If the price holds above 0.2300, it may test upwards at 0.2360–0.2400.
· If it breaks below 0.2200, it may accelerate the drop to 0.2100.
· Operation Suggestions:
· Short position holders: can continue to hold, pay attention to whether the support at 0.2200 breaks.
· Long position holders: It is recommended to reduce positions during rebounds and wait for the trend to become clear.
· Observers: You can wait for a clear direction to form in the price range of 0.2200–0.2300 before entering the market.