#特朗普加密货币政策新方向 Recently, the friends who have been monitoring the market should have sensed something is off. After two pieces of news came out, the short positions are particularly happy.

Let's first talk about the rumors of Powell resigning, which are actually unfounded. There has been rampant speculation online that he will resign on December 1st. I specifically checked the Federal Reserve's official website - he is scheduled to give a normal speech that day, with no urgent meetings. His term is originally set to expire in May 2026, and he has mentioned in previous interviews that he intends to serve until the end of his term. These kinds of rumors pop up every month, and mainstream financial media generally ignore them; at most, they can be considered short-term emotional fluctuations that can't stir up any significant waves.

What really makes people nervous is the actions from Japan. Did you see Ueda's statement on December 1? He directly said they would evaluate whether to raise interest rates at the meeting on the 18th-19th, which is the most straightforward signal this year. As soon as he finished speaking, the yen started to rise, and the yield on ten-year Japanese government bonds surged to the highest point since the 2008 financial crisis.

If this matter really materializes, the impact will be significant. Currently, there are several trillion dollars of yen arbitrage positions globally, simply put, borrowing low-interest yen to buy high-yield assets. Once interest rates are raised, these positions need to be quickly closed—selling US stocks and US bonds to exchange back for yen. Technology stocks are already highly valued, and such a sell-off will definitely be unsustainable. Emerging markets will suffer even more, as the pressure of capital outflow will rise instantly.

What's more troublesome is that Japan is the largest overseas buyer of U.S. Treasuries. Once the money flows back, the yields on U.S. Treasuries are bound to rise. Société Générale has already stated that this operation could potentially drag global economic growth down to 1% by 2026. Risk assets like the stock market are sure to suffer significant losses at that time.

$BTC These crypto assets are also estimated to be unavoidable, after all, the large liquidity environment has changed, and no one can keep themselves unscathed. The ones taking short positions are now rubbing their hands together, just waiting to see how this play unfolds.