#十二月行情展望 BTC falls below 90,000 again. How will the market move in December?

As December just began, the crypto market dealt investors a heavy blow - Bitcoin plummeted over $4,000 in just two hours, dropping to $86,161 at one point, with a 24-hour drop of nearly 5%; Ethereum fared even worse, falling over $200 to break the $2,900 mark, hitting a low of $2,813.20, with a 24-hour decline of over 5.5%. Other cryptocurrencies like Solana and BNB also took a dive, leaving the entire market in disarray.
This wave of flash crash directly triggered a "bloodbath for the bulls": over the past 4 hours, a total of $481 million was liquidated across the network, of which $462 million were long positions, equivalent to the bulls being rubbed into the ground. In 24 hours, more than 198,000 people lost all their capital, and many investors woke up to find their accounts emptied.
1. Why did it suddenly crash?
4 key factors hit market panic
1. Domestic regulators sound the alarm again: The central bank, together with thirteen departments, held an "anti-fraud meeting," clearly stating that virtual currency is an illegal financial activity, and stablecoins are also strictly regulated due to anti-money laundering risks. Although no new policies were introduced, the "prohibitive attitude" has been reinforced again, making the already tense market even more anxious.
2. The macro environment is worrisome: the Bank of Japan hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December, the first since 2008; while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has not yet materialized, global capital is hesitant to easily enter risk assets, and cryptocurrency is naturally affected.
3. Institutional funds have not kept up: Although there was a net inflow into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs last week, compared to the net outflow of $2.34 billion from the single IBIT ETF of BlackRock in November, this amount of funds is just "a drop in the bucket," which cannot support a market rebound.
4. Whales secretly sell off: The "ancient whale" of Ethereum, which entered the market in 2016 at a cost of only $203, has sold 7,000 ETH in the past month, earning nearly $20 million; there are also large holders with over 1,000 BTC who are selling ETH in batches. These "old players" leaving the market have directly doused the market with cold water.
2. Is there an opportunity hidden in the bad news? These two positive factors in December may save the situation.
Although the market is currently sluggish, there is still some hope, as two key positive factors may be on the way:
- The Federal Reserve ends "tightening": Starting from December 1, the Federal Reserve officially stops quantitative tightening (QT) and will no longer withdraw funds from the market. It is important to note that over the past three years, the Federal Reserve has withdrawn 2 trillion USD, and now "stopping the withdrawal" is equivalent to "loosening" the market, which may gradually improve liquidity.
- The probability of a rate cut is as high as 87.4%: On December 10, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and the current market predicts a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis point cut. If the rate cut occurs, funds may flow back into the crypto market, becoming a "catalyst" for a rebound.
3. How to proceed by the end of the year? 7 big names give clear judgments.
Facing a market that has "fallen into a state of numbness", what investors are most concerned about is: should they cut their losses now or buy the dip? In the last month of 2025, will the market hit bottom and rebound or continue in a bear market? Let's take a look at the views of industry leaders:
1. CryptoQuant (research institution): The total supply of stablecoins has surpassed $160 billion, reaching a record high, which serves as the market's "ammunition depot." History shows that after the growth of stablecoins, Bitcoin often rises. Now that the "bullets" are sufficient, a counterattack may be on the way. 2. MisterCrypto (analyst): The market has already seen a "surrender-style sell-off," but big players are starting to secretly open long positions. This combination of "retail panic and institutional bottom-fishing" has often signaled a rebound in the past, and Bitcoin may stabilize soon. 3. Arthur Hayes (co-founder of Bit): Boldly predicts that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of the year! He believes that $80,600 is the bottom, and now the Federal Reserve is set to end tightening and continue lowering interest rates. Combined with the previous leverage liquidation that has already "cleaned" the market, there is plenty of upward momentum.
4. André Dragosch (Bit Researcher): The current macro environment is very similar to that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy is about to accelerate growth, but the price of Bitcoin has not kept up yet, leaving a large potential for future increases.
5. Santiment (Sentiment Platform): Ethereum may rise 7% in the short term, with a target of $3200! Because the yield of stablecoins is only 4%, indicating that the market is not overheated and still has room for growth.
6. Ali (Crypto Analyst): Bitcoin will only rebound after traders lose more than 37%. It has only lost 20% so far, so it may need to endure for a while longer.
7. Matrixport (chart analysis agency): The market is very contradictory right now, with low volatility and a retreat of panic, but prices are stuck at a key position. Macroeconomic policies and seasonal patterns point in different directions, so caution is required in judgment.
In short, this wave of flash crash has indeed made many investors panic, especially those who were liquidated, definitely feeling both heartbroken and confused. However, the crypto market has always been "high risk, high reward," and panic and opportunity often coexist. The Federal Reserve's policy in December, the liquidity of stablecoins, and the movements of whales will all affect the market direction. If you are a heavily invested trader, do not blindly cut losses; if you are a friend looking to buy the dip, don't rush to enter the market, it’s better to wait for clearer signals. After all, in this market, surviving is more important than making quick money.