#数字货币市场回升 this wave directly smashed to $86,000, fall 5%.

Why the fall? It's not because of any project blowing up; the root cause is the Bank of Japan.

The market now expects that the probability of a rate hike on December 19 has soared to 76%. Based on this expectation, it has pushed the yield on Japanese 2-year government bonds to 1.84%—a level not seen since 2008. The market immediately panicked.

In the end, the problem lies in the yen carry trade. For the past few decades, Japan's interest rates have been essentially zero, allowing global traders to borrow yen at a very low cost and invest it in high-yield assets for arbitrage. This trade has been going on for over a decade.

But now the rules of the game have changed. Once Japan really raises interest rates, the arbitrage space disappears, and everyone rushes to close positions to reduce risk. When panic emotions arise, risk assets like $BTC are the first to be sold off.

This fall has nothing to do with the cryptocurrency industry itself; it is purely a transmission effect at the macro level. The fundamentals of the industry are sound, and recovery is just a matter of time.