Recently, I saw a lot of news about Powell resigning, saying that there will be an announcement at an emergency meeting on Monday night? Don't panic yet, this matter doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

I checked the Federal Reserve's official website, and they originally had a policy seminar scheduled for that evening, so where did this emergency meeting come from? Moreover, Powell's term as chairman doesn't end until 2026, and he can serve as a board member until 2028. He himself has previously stated that he would fulfill his final duties properly. Judging solely from this piece of news, it's likely just a baseless rumor.

But interestingly, the market's reaction to this rumor is particularly significant. I think there are several points behind it that are worth noting:

First, what everyone is truly afraid of is not whether Powell himself will stay or leave, but whether the independence of the Federal Reserve will be interfered with. If in the future a compliant chairman is appointed, can this current policy framework of "data-driven decision making" still be sustained? This uncertainty is what most undermines risk appetite.

Second, the market's expectation for a rate cut in December has already been inflated to around 82%, and the sentiment is already very tense. Any potential disruption to this rhythm, even if it’s just fake news, can easily trigger a reflexive sell-off.

Third, the funding situation at the end of the year is inherently special, with liquidity tightening and policy uncertainty combined, making volatility a high-probability event.

So even though this matter is likely fake, the market's anxiety is real. For the next period of time, it is recommended that everyone control their positions and not let emotions take over.